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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: donald sew who wrote (7467)3/4/1999 1:50:00 AM
From: Challo Jeregy  Respond to of 99985
 
Donald,

the following is an excerpt from Fleckenstein's report today . . .
(I have highlighted the part that fits in with your chess game)

Selling in stock land... Our market initially opened firmer this morning
when Intel (INTC) did not preannounce, as there had been rumors late
yesterday that it would. We tried to mount a rally that lasted about a half
an hour. Some stocks opened about $2 or $3 higher and quickly got
slammed. Intel traded up to $4 higher, Dell (DELL) was a buck and a half
higher and some of the selected semiconductor stocks were two and three
bucks higher - and within a half an hour they got sold. The bonds tried to
open higher and they got sold, too. Stocks and bonds kind of went down
together, although obviously there was more of an undertow in stock land.

Rally revives futures ... Then a couple of hours into the day we had a
rally that returned us to about where we had started the day, at least in
terms of the S&P, and that dragged stocks back up. We sold off and
made a new low for the day with about a half an hour to go. Then -
surprise, surprise - yet again we had an epic rally in the S&P futures late in
the day, and the bulls were able to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat
one more time. All of this was done with the bonds closing on their low of
the day, down almost a dollar and having broken the previous closing low
established last week. The long bond now has a yield over 5.70.

Early on we got underneath the magic 1225 number in the S&P and we
went under again late in the day, but it didn't seem to matter because we
had the last-hour ramp job. I'm not quite sure how this is able to occur
time and time again, especially given the fact the advance-decline line was
poor and the volume wasn't particularly great.

I'm surmising that as money flows out of tech, mutual fund managers are
taking the proceeds and purchasing S&Ps. I guess they figure, "What the
heck, we get graded against the S&P, we're selling our techs, we might as
well just buy S&Ps." Nobody who buys S&Ps and sticks them in the fund
wants tracking errors, so they buy them all in the last little while. And it
puts a good face on things - it makes everything look like it's hunky-dory,
although nothing could be further from the truth.


Under suspicion... Meanwhile, about six stocks today had outsized gains
that I thought were rather unusual, not counting Intel. (Intel was up about
$5 in the end but its stock has been slammed pretty hard, so arguably it
was due for a bounce.) But lo and behold, Dell picked up its head and
gained $3, Texas Instruments (TXN) was up $5, Maxim (MXIM) was up
$2, Linear Tech (LLTC) was up a buck and a half (although it had been
up more). Amazon (AMZN) was up two and a half and Sun Micro
(SUNW) gained over $3. These things had a different feel to them, but
when I stopped to look, the Janus organization was either the largest
shareholder or in the top three or four of all of these stocks.

This doesn't mean that any muscle is being applied to certain stocks, but
sometimes we find that companies that have very concentrated positions in
names are able to walk them up when they want to. And maybe a lot of
other people are keen on these names because these are the very best
names that you could possibly want to buy. I just find it suspicious. It
reminds me of late 1995 when there was a certain amount of tape painting
going on at Fidelity and there was a lot of unusual action in certain groups
of stocks. I'm not saying anything's going on for sure - I just thought it was
rather interesting and figured the folks at home would want to know about
it.

By the way, it's my personal opinion that if ever there were a mutual fund
headed for disaster, it's got to be the Janus 20. With the kind of
concentrations and names it has, there won't be any back door on that
thing when it goes down. To this point it's been a great ride, I'm sure.

Back to banks... Bank stocks initially were under a little bit of pressure,
but nothing like technology. I think money is continuing to flow into
anything but tech at the moment. I would point out that with all the
machinations going on in the currencies and the fixed income markets
around the globe, these banks are going to vulnerable yet again. I don't
think they've ever totally 'fessed up on all the derivative exposure, but we'll
save that topic for another day as well.



To: donald sew who wrote (7467)3/4/1999 2:02:00 AM
From: Daflye  Respond to of 99985
 
Donald and all,
Anyone else think Greenspan wants the markets to correct violently, just to make a point? He's done it before, he'll do it again. Greeny and the prez are trading shots over social security in the markets. El presidente is grandstanding with tremendous a bull run at his back and Greeny knows it's lunacy to invest those funds in the open markets. Another month of interest rate jitters and maybe the public won't think it's such a good idea either.

Oh well, makes for lots o' waves to ride.

Cheers,
D



To: donald sew who wrote (7467)3/4/1999 10:28:00 AM
From: StockOperator  Respond to of 99985
 
Donald,

Your chess analogy makes perfect sense. The market's inability to hold that triple top formation in January may fit very well into your scenario. My own work tells me that this consolidation will be ending shortly. With a break one way or the other. I just do not see a definitive sign as of yet to the direction of that break.

Good trading.

SO