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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kailash who wrote (49675)	3/4/1999 7:34:00 AM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Yes, the damn thing (EBAY) is like a whale, and here I am standing on the beach with a fly rod. I'd love to catch it but I don't have the wherewithal. That thing could still be roiling around come next October and swallow all the puts. I don't think it will. i think it will be up on the beach stinking to high heaven. But I don't dare try to do anything about it.

To: Kailash who wrote (49675)	3/4/1999 8:12:00 AM
From: Tommaso	Respond to of 132070

I am going to start watching the Oct 70 EBAY puts: .QXBVN Awfully expensive at 16 1/2. Presupposes that EBAY drops at least to $53.50 in seven months, or by 60%. And it would have to drop to $37 by then in order to double your money (before commissions). And to do really well, it would have to drop to under $20, or an 80% drop. That's a pretty fast decline, though AMZN managed 55% in a few weeks. What does anyone think? Then consider taxes. A triple would net $3300, of which taxes would take (US and state) about $1200, leaving one with $2,100 per put. A worthless expiry would cost around $1,000 after similar tax deductions. Doing nothing leaves you with your $1,650 plus any interest earned. So the choices are, a sure $1,650; or a chance at making an additional $2,100 or else losing about $1,000, either ending with $3,750 or down $1,000. This is real net gain if EBAY drops 80% in six months, and some real loss if it is at or above about 53, or a 60% loss. At this point I am not confident enough that EBAY will be down 60% in six months to put money on it. If I had eleven months I might and if I had 23 months I would.