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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: klaus pluszynski who wrote (28835)	3/4/1999 9:16:00 AM
From: Duker	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

<<You think the Sony announcement marks the start of the next upturn ?>> Yes, but I think that the recovery will probably fizzle out by the weekend. It could last through the weekend if DRAM prices in the spot market do not vary more than 2.4% from their 50 day moving average during the course of Friday trading. On that subject ... Here is a letter that someone sent to a person at a major SemiCap company [figure it out]: I thought it was kinda funny. --Duker Dear [Name], Sorry to hear that the Semiconductor Capital Equipment recovery is over. It was certainly pleasant while it lasted. A brief recap and some reflections: By my calculations, the recovery lasted just over 8.24 weeks. This exceeded most analysts' expectations. The First Call consensus for the CY1999 WFE recovery was only 8.17 weeks. Unfortunately, the whisper number was 8.55 weeks -- hence, the recent disappointment by the Street. I have heard that, due to the downturn, the Samsung order will probably be deferred by one year (lessons: there is no such thing a firm order ... and it is the DRAM manufacturer's prerogative to change its mind). Don't forget to mention the end of the recovery to Steve N. et.al., as there will surely have to be some process rebalancing done to compensate for the fact that 100% of future orders will be spares and service. In spite of the downturn, Intel is still planning to pull forward 300mm production. Intel, however, refuses to pay for it and expects that the SemiCap manufacturers will pay for the 4 pilot lines (and the new facility) in the new budget this year. Expect to contribute/pay/cough-up roughly $365mm or so -- you can use that restricted cash, right? It seems as though Mr. Hill was quite timely in raising additional cash after all. [N.B., Santa Clara-based companies are exempt from the Intel tithe.] I realize that you are probably very busy fielding research calls from the long-term momentum investors, who would never sell before getting comfortable that something has fundamentally changed with the business. On days like today, it is good to know that the people at places AIM, Pilgrim Baxter, and Janus will be ready to do the work to make the most of opportunities presented by the market. They do the work. Just like in the Janus commercials. They'll drive to a construction site every two weeks just to make sure that the project is going to be completed on time. They'll call 27 restaurants every Saturday night just to make sure the reservations are solid. They don't chase their tails like a silly pooch. Quite heartening, really. Thanks again for your efforts during this boom cycle. I wish you luck in managing this downcycle -- seems like just yesterday that you were announcing big orders. Looking forward to the next recovery. My best estimate at this point is for the next recovery to begin on February 26, 2001 and last all the way through May 16, 2001. It should be a good one. Sincerely, [Name]