To: killybegs who wrote (6007 ) 3/4/1999 10:02:00 AM From: Michael Olds Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 17679
Correction! I also need to learn to proofread, but the fact is I didn't catch this in my mind until this morning. On the other hand, no one else pointed this out either. Am I alone in thinking that the fact that these figures show that a very small tail is wagging this dog. . . um . . . that a very small ring (in our nose) is dragging us bulls around? Volume figures. My apologies! The correct figures are below. The extra 0 did not alter the ratios and percentages which were the real point. Since November 2, 1998 a total of 35,921,200 shares of AXC have changed hands. Of that, 20,716,500 (57.67%) changed hands on days when the stock was higher than the previous day, and 11,705,700 (32.59%) changed hands on days when the stock was lower than the previous day. Ratio of: 1.77 : 1 From November 2, 1998 (when the stock price was 1) to January 28 (when the stock price was 5) 21,548,700 shares changed hands (60% of the total volume for the period between November 2, 1998 and March 2, 1999). Of that 13,333,100 (61.87%) changed hands on days when the stock was higher than the previous day, and 4,947,800 (22.96%) changed hands on days when the stock was lower than the previous day. Ratio of: 2.70 : 1 From January 28, 1999 (when the stock price was 5) to March 2, 1999 (when the stock price was 3) 14,372,500 shares changed hands (you guessed it, 40% of the total volume for the period between November 2, 1998 and March 2, 1999). Of that 7,383,400 (51.37%) changed hands on days when the stock was higher than the previous day, and 6,757,900 (47.02%) changed hands on days when the stock was lower than the previous day. Ratio of: 1.09 : 1 The way I see it, this means that as a consequence of the owners of 19% (47.02% of 40%) of the shares that have changed hands since 11/2/98 selling their shares into the descending market between January 28 and March 3, the stock price for the owners of 58% of the shares that have changed hands since 11/2/98 (those who bought in a rising market) was reduced from 5 to 3 or 40%. That the owners of 20% of the shares that have changed hands since 11/2/98 have sold their shares into a descending market does not seem unreasonable to me. It seems unreasonable to me that the effect of this could have caused such a deterioration in the stock price in a market that was otherwise stable or heading up: in other words, the degree of damage has been exaggerated as a consequence of the greater market. The attention of the bulls should be on the fact that the owners of 60% of the shares that have changed hands during this period have held on to their shares. A fair vote of confidence. When the market does turn up, however, it seems reasonable to think that the up move will be more or less explosive in that the balance of power will switch disproportionately to the bulls: 4:1.