To: mph who wrote (38887 ) 3/4/1999 12:23:00 PM From: diana g Respond to of 95453
Re: OPEC Meeting Hi mph, <<<"Does anyone think that the 3/23 OPEC meeting will actually result in action ..." >>> Well, call me Pollyanna, but I think there's a reasonable chance. I think Venezuela is clearly coming into compliance now. The old govt and (then)upcoming elections were a major roadblock at the Nov OPEC meeting, imo. If the Iranian problem can be addressed, I think the Saudis may later cut production unilaterally. They've as much as said they would once full compliance is obtained. The Iranians and Saudis are talking now-- surely a hopeful sign. Also, the recent Iranian military maneuvers around the 3 disputed islands might be part of a strategy to get all they can in exchange for compliance. Although cartels often fail, as Razorbak and others have pointed out, I think it important to bear in mind that when they fail they fail because the members are inclined to act in their own individual best interests. If circumstances can be arranged so that cheating is ultimately non-beneficial, then for the time being the cartel will be effective and remaining in compliance will work to the benefit of its members. If this were not true, cartels would not exist in the first place. Eventually circumstances change and agreements fail, but that could be a great while in the future. (BTW, I think if I were OPEC I might want to have other non-OPEC producers believe that at any moment my various members might disagree and open the taps, sending the oil price plummeting. This would make others think twice about major investments in e+p, because of future oil price uncertainty, thus helping my members maintain both market share and profit margin. This seems rather Machiavellian, and I'm not saying it's so--- just a thought.) I'm not confident that the meeting will produce favorable results; I'm just saying I think there is a reasonable chance. BWDIK? I'm just a simple grrl, and often mistaken. For example, I thought they were going to call that new Ford SUV 'The Ford Valdese.' regards, diana