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To: The Ox who wrote (38918)	3/4/1999 1:59:00 PM
From: tdl4138	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Michael, I second your reasoning. For the past year excessive optimism has created more than one "trap". In time this sector will run...at least I hope so as I'm still holding quite a few issues. Everyone needs to remember a few things before jumping in blindly. 1. Most exploration budgets have been slashed. 2. Oil prices need to stabilize at higher levels before day rates, etc will start an upward climb. 3. These stocks didn't fall apart over night...and will appreciate over time when a strong fundamental base is maintained. Just my thoughts Dave

To: The Ox who wrote (38918)	3/4/1999 2:55:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Michael you just don't get it & I don't think you ever will.... ...and trying to ''spin'' reality here will not work either. Michael - this isn't meant to be rude, or personally directed; sometimes one has to be the ''posterchild'' on occassion <VBG>. I don't think for a second that you don't understand where I am coming from - I know you do; and you can't stand it <VBG>.... You keep throwing up - me ''calling bottoms'' - we once and for all - yes I bought into the June & July Selloffs - but guess what - I am in the Green overall. If you had paid attention to anything of late - my only premise since the Sept blowoff has been to buy into them headlong - to trade them - not being greedy; just trying to catch the middle 2/3rds - 1/2 of the range. I have done this now 4 times. We have had an absolute text book rolling trading range and a quadruple bottom that Jeff Cooper couldn't have diagramed, or wished for any better... Unlike those Invest LTD Mensa's who seemed to have shorted into bottoms and otherwise occuped their time with self-aggrandizing mental gymnastics and poo-pooing the end of the Oilpatch; some of us have learned from past mistakes; and have greatly profited. Those that I direct my remarks and ''tweaking'' too - are the Nattering Naybobs of Negativity & Chicken Littles who not only called for the end of the world in the Oilpatch - but bashed those who stayed here, learned, studied, fought, got bloodied, but have emerged the wiser and richer. It is ''only'' the ones who have been ''Johnny come latelys'' and "Fair Weather Friends'' and that didn't like getting ''called on it'' that I am directing my ''tweaks'' too... So if you can't take the heat - stay out of the kitchen and especially - don't be calling the kettle black ! I have been trading here and buying into all 4 bottoms - what ''I'' have done - is irreleveant - I am not blowing my horn - I am blowing the horn in celebration for all of us who have stuck it out and learned here. Not those who keep throwing out those sterotypical nonsensical, unsupported "The world is coming to an end'' criticisms to those of us who were not mindlessly cheerleading here. Surely you don't accuse me of ''mindless'' cheerleading here ? I think above all; I have shared my thought process, my reasons, and my tactics - flawed or not, right, or wrong - profitable, or not. I'm not an analyst, I don't charge anyone anything - we are equals among each other; I exchange ideas and use this as a sounding board. The one thing that I am NOT guilty of is ''mindless'' anything. I think I usually explain my thought process, and often use statistical facts, historical quotes, graphs etc. when supporting my position. What ''I'' have never done - it ''dance'' to the oldies - spinning on a dime with the daily wind changes <VBG>.... so just for the sake of keeping the discussion going - lets review history a bit here <VBG>! Just how guilty, accurate, or innaccurate have I been - versus my naysayers ? time & dates below.... I just want to clarify reality here - The Bulls be knowin who they is and the World now knows who the Bears are - (even those masquerading in Bulls clothing) <VBG> ! ******************************************************************************* To: SliderOnTheBlack (37996 ) From: Michael Happel Tuesday, Feb 23 1999 2:15PM ET Reply #38038 <<You can be bullish all you want. You can stick your head in the sand and call another bottom if you want. You can disagree with others on this thread who are VERY concerned about the long and short term implications that today's oil prices foreshadow.>> hmmm; call another bottom; well I'd have to say I did - did I not ? And one hell of a nice ''pop'' if I may add - so to all those who dared venture deep in the valley of the shadow of death - and did a little bottom fishing - I say - HOOOOO HAHHHHHH ! PS Michael - we have been preaching sell these moves - trade 'em & shoot for the middle 2/3rds to 1/2 - not being greedy; I took lots of profits today here - 50% cash as I speak ! Mainly a large position in PDE, FGI, PGO, FLC among others - looking for dips to a new low in VTS - sitting at 8 3/8ths here for a mother lode...do need to do some averaging in that one <VBG> and come on FGI back to the $10's... please. ***************************************************************************** hmmm; 5 years or more untill they become ''winners' huh - how 'bout 7 days <VBG> ! - not a bad bottom call imho. ie: <<To: SliderOnTheBlack (38099 ) From: Michael Happel Wednesday, Feb 24 1999 11:21AM ET Reply # of 38916 In the interest of keeping this discussion going, I find it very interesting that you would post this article to back up your point of view. Let's start with what appears to be the most obvious issue, IMO, Our analysis of the discovery and production of oil fields around the world suggests that within the next decade..... The above line from the article says it all. Within the next decade. Ok, I agree completely with you Slider if you say buy these stocks today and sometime within the next decade they will be great to own. Maybe you should put that disclaimer on some of your posts, something like this: I'm pounding the table but it might be 5 years or more before they actually become money winners??>> ...no sir - not 5 years....just 7 days - Hoo Hahhhh ! and I'm taking their money again today <VBG>. It's bigtime short covering...so lets be carefull out there - let the shorts give us trading profits and re-buy the dips; be smart and take the shorts and our fair weathered friends money all the way to the bank ! - nothing but net ! ****************************************************************************** ...and boy; I really had my head in the sand with this one too - didn't I ? <<James Cramer C'Mon Cramer - just do it; Rotate allready ! Sell Tech & Buy OSX stocks ! #203, Feb 4 1999 6:08PM >> ...now selling TECH back on Feb. 4th and buying into the Oilpatch selloff - boy that was really having one's head in the sand.... hope the hell I don't make any more calls like that.... have too much capital gains to be paying <VBG>... ***************************************************************************** Yes; buying into this blow off - even though it has been an impervious quadruple bottom was ohhhh sooo foolish now wasn't it ... Gee - what another ''head in the sand'' call here... <<To: Michael Happel (38038 ) From: SliderOnTheBlack Tuesday, Feb 23 1999 5:21PM ET Reply # of 38922 "No Guts - No Glory'' and guts are in obvious short supply here ! The weak get weaker and the strong buy cheaper <VBG> Only time will tell; but just in case no one has noticed; irregardless of the Clayton Williams post, all the gloom & doom posts, nattering naybobs efforts aside; NOTHING has caused the OSX to set a new low ! and PS ! ---> Oil has moved strongly and ''pit'' traders have commented on the heavy shorting and the ''talk'' of ''trying to keep the lid on'' untill the OPEC meeting. KEYWORD being ''trying'' to keep the lid on..... Love it ! ******************************************************************************* Michael - nothing personal; I love you man; but I had to use your posts as an example. Clinton-Carville-esque spin doctoring is something I will never swallow in Monica-esque fashion....<VBG>! The Truth shall set us free and for once - the ''real'' BULLs have had a walk in the sun.... and a damn fine walk it was ! HOOOOO HAHHHHH ! ..now lets buy the dips when the shorts get done here and the fair weather friends start puking on the retracement... the Street will keep the lid on this the best they can - but not past the OPEC meeting... watch.

To: The Ox who wrote (38918)	3/4/1999 3:50:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Ps Michael; <<The last time we saw oil prices shoot up, you were the first to declare that the long awaited reversal was here. Unfortunately you were dead wrong, as oil immediately dropped back from $12.80 or so and fell back below $12 very quickly. After that reversal, many of the OS stocks made new lows. Not all, but many. >> I was ''deadwrong'' ? - trying a little too hard there aren't you Mickey ? Where was I deadwrong ? I haven't been trading Crude Oil futures ? What are you talking about in $12.80 crude to $12.00 ? I've sold about 9 different stocks profitably here today. I am ''only'' selling because I read this as primarially short covering and I do not expect to see 3-4 days at this pace; I'll re-buy asap on a dip below my sells here... The shorts will be fierce into the OPEC meeeting - they want the lid on this; as THEY see a clear reversal, just as I do... Listen to the news on CNBC today ? Many others have seen a reversal too. I think Alan Greenspan saw one as well. As did Abbey J-Cohen about 6 weeks ago as well.... <<Now, we have a couple day rally in oil prices partially fueled by Greenspan's comments and you are ready to say that all who are cautious short term are full of "negativity". So be it. Your rose coloured blinders are obvious>> Michael I never criticize anyone who is ''cautiously optimistic'' - you are a ''fair weathered friend'' who got called on the carpet -and didn't like it... Where in your posts that I just logged - were you ''cautiously'' optimistic ? You were a ''sky is falling'' BEAR if there ever was one ? - The ''Poster Child'' for Nattering Naybobs of Negativity ! Was the the 5 year insult - cautiously optimistic ? Were your other gloom & doom posts ''cautiously optimistic'' ? I've bought into the selloffs and have done pretty well; only VTS & RIG owned at any meaningfull level above here... and RIG could be there in a day. I do think we have reversed, but I will keep taking profits - once again not being greedy, but trying to scalp the 2/3rds middle of a move as we fight in a stair step fashion upward. But, Michael - I don't see NOESIS's $8 oil here; con't see $10 NYMEX, or $8 Brent - also don't see sub 45 OSX - so how do you not see a reversal ? - sorry; a rhetorical question; you couldn't see a reversal unless it was an Internet-type spike <VBG> sorry; I forgot you guys from Invest LTD - don't look forward for your ''reversal'' indicators; they have to be right directly in front of your nose like the last 2 days <VBG>.... Here the last 2 days; we see lots of recent short covering (because of the supply reduction trend that I pointed out weeks ago) - I think in 2 days we've just come too far & too fast; I think I can re-buy cheaper in a few days; and if not - I am still holding a substantial position to ride through the OPEC meeting... yes; Mikey-boy I take proifits as the shorts cover and the fair-weather wind blowers buy.... but what I do is insignificant; I just enjoy seeing the wind blow... PS; out of curiosity - As we have ''NOT'' penetrated a new OSX low - how do you think we haven't established a reversal ? Either Crude Price-wise, or OSX-wise... <<Let me ask you a simple question. Why would I invest in a sector if I didn't think that "Our day will come"???? Simple question with a simple answer.>> Mickey-boy; that isn't the question; the question is - why do you try to spin reality so hard ? 7 days ago you could NOT have been more BEARISH and preached total gloom & doom. But now you want to shed those clothes that you so publically wore - that I just want to point out reality.... and your complete and total - ''Johnny come lately Status'' ... A reversal - yes; and also a cherry picking-candy from a baby taking trading range ! And those just like you - ''got my candy'' ....and I just took it again <VBG>...