To: Tom Allinder who wrote (1278 ) 3/4/1999 7:59:00 PM From: Kimberly Lee Respond to of 13776
Thomas, you've been working diligently and valiantly against the turning tides of the penny stocks market, but that's only that much you can do. It simply affirms the simple if disconcerting reality that even a very good trader like yourself with an excellent work ethics and methodology can find yourself frustrated during this uncertain time. As I posted about 2 weeks ago and again yesterday, there is an overall bearish tone in this segment of the market. Traders are taking profit much quicker, volume has been much lower than before, mms are shorting issues at will, most news stories don't run or die quickly... The profitable trades I made in the last several days came mostly from 6 categories: 1. Buying on compelling news stories (IMOT, ALFN) or on grandiose hype (PNTC) in issues with small float. 2. New issues, compelling values, stories or both (lance and Wayne's picks of BID.COM, IHWY, etc.) 3. Buying on subtle, hidden technical strength (GLXY, PFOO, RIHI, XTRA...) that implies good news coming and selling before and into the news. 4. Bottom fishing former highflyers and watch for increasing technical strength to signify important coming news (Wayne's FDIR and my pick of ITOY a few days back, for instances) 5. Intraday scalping. In a less difficult market, I usually pick the intraday bottom (or near bottom) about 85% of the time. But yesterday ALEX kicked my butt twice in IMOT until I risked more and average down twice, and even then my efforts only ended in minimizing damage. Today IHWY had me scratching my head twice, although for some reasons, I had better luck with PNTC. To tell the truth, I feel uncharacteristically gun shy today, confronting for the first time in weeks much indecisiveness and self doubts. 6. Pure technical breakouts, momentum plays: MPEG, EVTY ($Mogul alerted me to that one, have to give him credit) and two trash shells (PNTH and CATV). These are highly risky and extremely short-termed plays. I too will be cutting down my trades in the next week or so. If and when I play, I will become far more selective; of the 6 categories above, I will focus mainly on the first 4, with emphasis in 3 and 4. In this shifting climate in the market, bottom fishing good issues and dead cat bounce plays appear to offer higher risk/reward ratio than breakout plays, for the most parts.