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To: Lee who wrote (107219)	3/4/1999 4:44:00 PM
From: JRI	Respond to of 176387

Thanks for your great thoughts, Lee..a couple rejoinders.. (1) Germany has no room anymore to chastise anyone about fiscal policy...Germany has been running huge budget deficits since at least 1991 (East Germany incorporation)..and was running large deficits even before then...even at the worst (for the U.S.), on a % basis, the U.S. rarely did worst then Germany over the last 10-12 years...somewhere back in the 80's..Germany did do better... It will only get worse (for Germany)...(and Japan, and Italy) too many young trying to support too many old (I'm speaking in economic terms only here)... Looking at major world economies (and their fiscal situations), I would think the U.S. would pay a pretty small premium...The Euro smoke-and-mirror (budget) games over the past couple years haven't fooled anyone...witness the weak Euro... <Some of the Fed gets it> I agree. I think Greenspan certainly does. It looks like the Cleveland and St.Louis members (most bearish) were replaced by more dove-ish colleagues...So I feel good about Greenspan's understand of "new era" economics...After all, he can overrule (anyway) right? (It is ultimately his decision, although I guess if all or a vast majority on the board were against him, he would reconsider)...sounds like a lot of new era colleagues with him...(by "new era"...I don't mean throwing out all the rules, just adjusting for the new realities) Thanks again for your responses....I guess we'll know soon enough...