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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Platter who wrote (38963)	3/4/1999 9:53:00 PM
From: Dwight E. Karlsen	Respond to of 95453

The Patch was definitely the sector to be in today. Out of the sectors I follow, The Patch today far and away outperformed: Internet Computer Software Computer Hardware Retail Dept. stores Airlines ---- Most impressive today was lowly PTEN, rising 20% on strong volume. My FLC didn't do too shabby either. driller/OS sector stocks I follow: techstocks.com

To: Platter who wrote (38963)	3/4/1999 10:05:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

This Reuters article personifies the profitability of leading vs. following - and also having a plan; and believing the numbers and having the guts to stick with the plan into opposing market sentiment and to just trust the numbers when you know they are right; knowing that if you are right - the Street will follow... the keyword being ''follow'' - that is what they do best... Here is a classic example: ******************************************************************************** <<NEW YORK, March 4 (Reuters) - Crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) broke through the psychological $13-a-barrel barrier Thursday for the first time since January, lifted by heavy short covering, traders said. >> ''heavy short covering'' - first one needs to see, or know that there is a heavy short position in the Crude Oil Futures Market. Remember the Saudi Oil Minister stating that the supply and production numbers do not support $10-12 Oil ? Remember his comments on the heavy impact by the short traders ? One needs to know there is heavy short covering #1; and then #2 - one needs to determine and look forward to what factors could cause these shorts to cover. Personally; I saw NOESIS continually discounting all of the positive trends and statistics that I saw in black and white. The Gloom & Doomers kept using the truism; - ''It's the Price of Oil - Stupid''. They couldn't see past the end of their nose, or yesterdays Oil prices. They totally missed the glaring common sense factor that the dramatic reductions in Drilling Rig utilization - will lead to dramatic reductions in production - which will lead to dramatic reductions in supply - which will lead to higher prices ! Even more importantly than looking forward and guaging/estimating what today's present conditions would bring tomorrow; they failed to look at the real supply numbers in comparison to supply numbers of the past. I saw no one else - talking about the 320 Million BOE supply level; as the level at which we fell below same time last years (1998) supply levels - which supported the much higher prices of last year and historically much higher prices than the present. Many also failed to recognize the TREND. The trend was down. We were on target with just 70% OPEC compliance to reach the 300-310 Million boe level; which has historically suppported $18+ oil. The numbers do not lie; they were out there, their historic support was out there; but yet all the gloom & doom persisted. Finally, this week we had a big upside API/EIA surprise. All of the reduced US production stats came out - literally losing 500,000 boe per day in the US and still no one looked past the end of their nose and said - ''trust the numbers'' the market is wrong and it will correct. Well, I guess some did - I did; and I was met with ridicule and more Gloom & Doom...Happless criticism accusations of simplistic, mindless Cheerleading... Now, look even a little further past ones nose, use some common sense. What just happened Globally ? Did we not just have a massive liquidity pump ? Internaitonal rate cuts, added liquidity and Japan cutting rates to zero and pumping and unprecedened amount of liquidity into their system was and is a huge catalyst for future crude prices. Did anyone say - hey, this is strongly inflationary ! - commodities have to rise, all ways have and all ways will into the face of this policy ? How many people still did not believe that the trend had changed - when the Phillipines, So Korea, Thailand etc. showed dramatic spikes in demand and growth ? How many posts did we hear to that effect, that were still met with more gloom & doom and more - ''It's the Price of Oil -Stupid'' ? No - still the Gloom & Doom; and it still had to be, - ''the price of Oil - stupid.'' Well some people were pounding the table saying that the trend had turned and that the numbers were not lying - and to trust the numbers - that the Street would follow. We even touted how the Street would try very, very hard to spin everything negatively going into the OPEC meeting as they could not afford to miss a move here... we talked about the recent Internet similarity; of how The Street flooded CNBC and every media outlet with Gloom & Doom - ''Bubbleology, downgrades, Margin changes - leading to a crash and then a not so surprising turn on a dime by the Street... We talked of the now quadruple bottom - and still more Gloom & Doom, still more NOESIS and $8 Oil prognostications, still more analyst downgrades and negativity. Well some of us trusted the numbers, trusted ourt plans and did NOT trust the Street - we bought headlong into the selloffs and directly into the criticism and gloom & doom. Well who do you think was doing all of this high volume buying here the last 2 days ? Certainly not just all the Mad-Cow diseased Strictly Drilling Bulls... - gee; apparantly the Street did a little buying, a lot of short covering and basically did exactly the opposite of what they preached all month long ! - surprised ? Well, if you are - you still don't get it... ****************************************************************************** <<The short covering, combined with this week's draw in U.S. crude stocks and recent refinery cuts that have tightened product supply, have convinced buyers that things are slowly improving in the oil markets, he added. >> ...well; gee - about 4 weeks later here is a Reuters article showing how the Street finally caught on. ''Tightened product supply'' How long have some been pointing out the change in the trend in supply numbers, the numerous factors which would continue to drive down supply - mainly reduced production ? - but, remember; when we talked about reduced production being a driver to higher prices - we were once again chastised by the chant of ''It's the demand problem - stupid''; well I guess they just forgot that it ''is'' actually a 2-sided mathematical equation and that just moving one side will move prices... There were massive shorts in Oil futures and they did cover ! They covered because of the supply numbers. My point is not that one had to be a genius to see this early; quite the contrary. All of this info was out there for all to see. Public info that ''any'' individual investor has access to; and if they did their homework - it didn't take a Nostradamus to conclude that the numbers didn't support current crude prices and that the price trend would be up. How hard was it really to just look forward and conclude from the numbers that the Street was ''shorting''; that the numbers did not, and had never supported these crude prices ; and most importantly that every possible factor looking forward - such as all the liquidity stimulus, all the rate cuts and other traditionally inflationary moves would have a positve effect on crude prices ? How hard, how much common sense did it take ? How much common sense knowing that the OPEC meeting would be a huge catalyst ? Sometimes all one has to do is a little homework and then trust the numbers. It is not hard to form a plan based on numbers, looking forward, history and common sense; but it is hard to then trade that plan with discipline directly into opposing market & investor sentiment. But, guess what - it's the easiest way to make money in the market. That is why there are so few Warren Buffet's. It is so hard to trust the numbers and to stick to the plan against the grain, but hey - when was anything easy profitable ? When were the majority ever vastly rewarded ? Quite the contrary, due to sheer mathematics - only the contrarian, a minority by definition, can achieve these types of dramatic returns; as it is a basic supply/demand equation. Some day the masses will learn - you can't have low stock prices and strong fundamentals simultaneously. One has to look far forward and base a buying decision into negative sentiment and fundamentals on changing trends and especially when the numbers indicate anomalies that do not support the current prices. Trust the numbers - as the Street will allways follow - they are usually a little late to the party; I guess fashionably so... Nattering Naybobs of Negativity ? - well I think we all ready covered that today...

To: Platter who wrote (38963)	3/4/1999 10:44:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

If you can't play with the Big Dogs - stay on the Porch...or don't click IE; my responses to the Happels & NOESIS's of the world: It seems in todays ultra - politically correct society that if someone tells it like it is, questions anyone, or calls someone to live up to their words, or expects someone to accept responsibility - that somehow that is rude, attacking, irreverant and immoral. Well, my purpose is ''not'' to be the clubby, warm & fuzzy, Mr. Nice Guy... Personally, the chit-chat inanity of some threads does very little to help anyone. The self-schmooing and patting each other on the back and ignoring reality and letting anyone tell the ''story'' of the day (be it true or false) because ''it's their story - so let them tell it''... is NOT productive imho. But, don't confuse this with thinking that anyone doesn't have the right to do so if they wish... These guys can lie to each other all they want. They can literally parade naked daily as the ''clothesless Emperor's if they want to - I have no problem with that. Just don't expect me not to point ... The mindset that I refer to is personified by Monica Lewinsky's comments on her ''not'' having had a ''sexual'' relationship with Bill Clinton; - but, yet - he is her ''sexual'' soulmate; no sex - but yet a sexual soulmate ? - go figure ? Kind of like - one day ''these stocks won't move for 5 years ! - and you've got your head in the sand''... but the next day - it's all Hoopla and ''dancing'' to the Oldies in the Street as ''our day will come''.... go figure ? C'Mon... You can't ''NOT'' have sex - but have a ''sexual soulmate'' and you can't bash, spread doom & gloom - preaching that those buying into selloffs have their heads in the sand - and then days later be singing in the rain.... Sorry; the world needs someone to occassionally point out life's frauds, inconsistancies, myths's and fallacies - and I enjoy doing it... I especially enjoy tweaking the tweakers here. The arrogant, lazy - no research - no homework, marginally informed, sterotypical misquoting front runners, fair weather friends and Johnny come-latelys of the World, who can't see past the end of their nose; occassionally need to be called on the carpet. This NOESIS commentary today; in my opinion is the most ridiculous thing that I have ever seen ! I can not and will not fail to respond to garbage and pure spin doctoring like that. If someone doesn't like that - use your ''mouse'' responsibly and just say no and don't click on my posts.... Because; I AM going to tell it like it is - like it, or not.