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Gold/Mining/Energy : Yogen Fruz IT'S ALIVE, IT'S ALIVE -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chee Keong Loh who wrote (1218)	3/4/1999 9:13:00 PM
From: Ward Nicholson	Respond to of 2453

Good post. Perhaps the name of this thread should be corrected. WN

To: Chee Keong Loh who wrote (1218)	3/4/1999 9:26:00 PM
From: J. Plantinga	Respond to of 2453

Re: The market is wrong... Saying the market is wrong is like saying the wind is blowing in the wrong direction. The market moves as it moves. Period. It would be more accurate to say the market isn't always rational. That's merely because there are people driving the market and people are often irrational, particularly when money is involved. As for the market being efficient, this term refers to the fact the any relevant data about a company/stock is generally priced into the stock almost immediately, often before the information is widely known. This being the case, the real opportunities to make money come from the fact that the market isn't rational and swings to being over-bought/over-sold. IMHO, the change in YF's share price is much more indicative of a change in market perceptions (i.e., emotion) than in the actual fundamentals of the Company, although unquestionably both are factors. It will take consistent positive performance over time and/or some significant individual event(s) for the market to change its mind about YF. I doubt there is much downside risk left in this one, but that doesn't mean it is a buy at this time. I also don't expect any significant upward movement for awhile. One thing I have learned is that however good the fundamentals of a company look, it's generally a bad idea to assume the market is "wrong" and buy (or short) against the primary trend of a stock. You may be right eventually(!) but what could you have done with that money in the meantime? And how much cheaper could you bought in if you had waited? (Anybody who "averaged down" at $10 or $8 or $5 has asked themselves this question, I'm sure.) Cheers, all. JP

To: Chee Keong Loh who wrote (1218)	3/5/1999 9:13:00 AM
From: AGORA	Respond to of 2453

CK. I respect your opinion. This kind of debate is what makes a market. Some months from now (after the summer financials are released), we will have to re-visit this issue. Regards, AGORA

To: Chee Keong Loh who wrote (1218)	3/5/1999 10:11:00 AM
From: telecomguy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2453

Look guys, this is not complicated. You and Ward are obviously technical traders & your strategy is to get in & out of stocks on momentum plays. If that's the case, fundamentals don't apply to your decisions -- I understand that & respect that. If I was flipping stocks, I also couldn't care less about fundamentals. What I have been trying to say in the last few posts is this; If you are value investor like me, you look at past mgmt performance, balance sheet, profitability, their long-term business strategy, & the overall market for their product. On all those fronts, YF does not merit a failure to the extent that it is being judged today. I have owned my own telecom & software business for over 7 years and have been in business at a fairly senior mgmt level in various different corporations for the past 20 years. In my experience, one thing became obvious. BUSINESS IS FRAUGHT WITH RISK & UNEXPECTED EVENTS. Companies go up & down in their fotunes (& profitability of course) through no fault of their own in some situations. Very few corporations shoot up without any glitches in earnings, revenues or share price from a start-up to a mature large-cap company. Even companies like Dell, ATI, Northern Telecom have had huge ups & downs. If you have any experience running a company of any size you will know that it's nearly impossible to show double digit revenue/profit gains from beginning to the end. What matters is how mgmt deals with these setback & their committment to their long-term strategy. To make a conclusion that YF is doomed, you must have some facts to back it up. You cannot conclude that a company is doomed because it's stock price went down substantially. If we were to apply your herd-mentality logic without any basis, Northern Telecom should be bankrupt by now since they also had a huge run on their stock two times in the last 5 years -- mostly driven by Analyst warnings which were completely off the mark. In fact if you look at almost any blue-chip stocks and look at their share price history over the past 20 years, I think you will find some incredible downturns in their share price and guys like you and Ward I am sure would have bailed out if you honestly believe that Market is always right.