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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elmer who wrote (38967)	3/4/1999 9:42:00 PM
From: Broken_Clock	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

I only post to give an alternative viewpoint. I am a bull on oil longterm(year 2000 on out). However, I find it hard to justify SLB at 56 3/8 from 40 a month ago with lowered earnings for 1999(Yahoo consensus shows $1.67 which gives SLB a 1999 PE of over 33). I imagine the dramatic spike in SLB(osx) was two fold: short covering and sector flight from techland. Perhaps Noesis is dead wrong. Perhaps he is not. I imagine 30 days from now we will know. How much further do you see slb climbing before it becomes overvalued? Currently it is right in line with the S&P PE of 33 and change.

To: Elmer who wrote (38967)	3/4/1999 10:34:00 PM
From: JungleInvestor	Respond to of 95453

<< The IEA gets its U.S. supply and demand data from the DOE. Thus, this proves that a significant portion of the missing barrels(the difference between the IEA's implied inventory change versus the observed change in OECD inventories) were never even produced. Look for massive IEA revisions to 1998 demand(upward) and supply (downward) as the current year progresses. >> Elmer, it would not be surprising if you are correct about massive revisions for 1998 and the "missing" barrels never being produced. It would also not be surprising to see the IEA continually revise downward the supply estimate for 1999 because forecasts are based on history and their model would be using an incorrect history (also it probably does not include the full impact of the huge capex cuts). If this scenario plays out, the oil price pendulum may swing waaayyy over to the other side in 1999!