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Technology Stocks : Newbridge Networks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (10015)	3/4/1999 9:56:00 PM
From: Peppe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18016

Ian,Ian,Ian, In defense of my buddy Dougie, and everyone else who dares to post bearish thoughts about NN on this thread ... Or are CSCO, DELL, IBM, MSFT, ... and many other large cap, high tech stocks all committing a felony? You're kidding, right ? CSCO,DELL,IBM,MSFT and ....NN ? Well, maybe if they hadn't blown 5 of the last 8 quarters, they'd be on the right track to be mentioned on the same line as these companies. That's the biggest difference between NN and these gorillas. They don't disappoint wall street !! We would actually need a 26% CAGR to double in precisely 3 years which happens to be somewhat less than the 30-50%CAGR achieved and forecasted for leaders in this sector. With declining TDM revenue, ATM revenues would have to grow at a much faster rate. NN has yet to prove to anyone of us that they are capable of such sustainable growth. Now if you want to make an argument that NN is not and will not be a leader, that's completely different. I think that's the point DOug was trying to make. They're not a leader, not even close. Their ability to achieve their growth objectives is questionable, at best. Cheers, Ian,Ian,Ian., P E P P E

To: Ian@SI who wrote (10015)	3/4/1999 11:43:00 PM
From: pat mudge	Respond to of 18016

Ian -- Thanks for doing the math. With your left brain and my right, who needs a choir???? :) Pat

To: Ian@SI who wrote (10015)	3/5/1999 8:24:00 AM
From: Doug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18016

Ian: There are no laws regarding growth . History can only point to trends. Any trend lines, no matter how steep, decay with time in keeping with natures law of Entropy. Approximate Revenues for the Companies you mention are as follows for the current 3 yr span.(97-99) a:CSCO $6.440b ,8.458b, 9.988b* b:IBM $69.1b,70.0b,81.6b* c:MSFT $11.06,13.8b,16.6b* d:Dell $7.00b,12.0b,$18.0b* Except for DELL, I do not see a doubling of revenue in the 3 yr span. The majority of large Cap Companies are unable to show sustained growth of 20%. If your research shows otherwise, kindly post the relevant links. I did not refer to the 72 rule or the (1+X)**N rule because the revenue growth for NN is so far of the mark that simpler maths would suffice to make the point. The discussion pertains to the claim made that NN would double its revenue in 3 yrs. It is not about other Companies, Laws of growth, and definition of Leaders. You would be making a more valuable contribution if using your MATHS, you could show us how NN is and will double its revenues between 1998 and 2001.