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Pastimes : The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lucretius who wrote (23380)	3/4/1999 11:48:00 PM
From: MythMan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

>>Trust me, LTCM (which is still out there) is not the only leveraged player in the bond mkt which is hurting.<< Oh yeah? Splain that a little further.

To: Lucretius who wrote (23380)	3/4/1999 11:58:00 PM
From: Copeland	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

Here's a more realistic bearish scenario -- We wake up tomorrow to find the jobs number higher than expected, but more importantly, the wage figure MUCH, MUCH higher than expected. Bonds collapse in the uncertainty and the yield moves up to 6%. Stock market falls hard on strong volume to recover partially at 10 AM and at noon. The real fun begins in the afternoon or Monday. Realistic bullish scenario -- We wake up tomorrow to find the jobs number much higher thanexpected, but the boys in the funny coats at CBOE shrug it off as being priced in after a brief sell off that pushes the yield to 5.75% and then back to 5.7%. No significant change in the wage figure, so inflation is still at bay. Dow opens up muted, go negative 20 or 30 on profit taking, and then eeks out a good positive gain for the day.