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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: upanddown who wrote (38986)	3/5/1999 6:43:00 AM
From: Platter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Brent up 11 cents to 11.64 in London Trading!

To: upanddown who wrote (38986)	3/5/1999 8:49:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 95453

ie: John Clarke's post; Are the Blind trying to ''mislead'' the Blind here ? No ''trend'' ? & EIA charts ? - Get a Clue ! look from Aug 98 - to present. Go to the EIA site; eia.doe.gov 1. Now scroll down to - ''Crude Oil Watch'' 2. go to - ''Weekly Petroleum Status Reports'' 3. click on #3 - ''status of crude oil stocks and petroleum products'' - this will open a PDF format table showing supply statistics going back to 1997 to the present. For example - in the great run up in OSX stocks and oil prices - from March to Oct 1997 - supply numbers ran: 313,319,326,320,309,300,303,316 - for an average figure of 314 Million boe in storage - that being during the ''Great Run up''. If we were to have just ONE more week of supply drawdowns like last week - guess where we would be in relation to that avg. of 314 M boe John ? In 1998 from the January to May OSX rally; we were at the following supply levels; 320,322, 336, 351, 352. Earth to "JOHN'' - HELLO ! - we are at 320 M boe right now ! We have strongly drawn down from the peaks and are heading down - when you say NOESIS's graph is a month old - hello ! we are down in supply from last month ! The tend is even more downward ! We are now a tic above 320 Million BOE in storage with over 30 Million BOE being drawn down since August of 1998, - an average of 4.29 Million BOE per mo drawdown. So if OPEC maintains compliance (it went back up this week!) and demand remains where it is (God forbid we get more Asian upside demand/growth revisions like So Korea) then how many months untill we are at levels that throughout history have supported $18-$20+ crude prices ? Now; John - I don't think we will have crude traders let the prices run to $18 overnight; and I do not think that we will drop to sub 300 M boe overnight; but guess what - THE Industry experts - not me, not you, are ''quoted'' everyday mentioning the ''downward'' trend in supply - the obvious ''upward'' trend in prices and the biggest factor looming on the horizon - NOT the OPEC meeting; but the incalcuable loss of drilling activity and production due to unprecedented Cap Ex cuts by Oil Producers ! These numbers have NOT even started to show up - wait until 3-6 months! Obviously you also failed to see the US stats of a loss of 500,000 BOE per day in production - that is 180 MILLION BOE per year John. Now JOHN; the other mistake that the ''Bears" Gloom & Doomers are making is that they can not look out forward past the end of their nose. I'll use you as a posterchild example here: You made the statement in your post showing supply stats for the 4 weeks of Febuary ie: <<the EIA tables for the last month and they show absolutely no trend. One week is not a trend. eia.doe.gov Crude Oil Stocks in Million of Barrels Week Ending 02/05/99 02/12/99 02/19/99 02/26/99 \| 02/26/98 U.S. Total 333.4 331.7 334.7 331.5 \| 322.1 >> John; I have continually said that week to week moves do not make a dramatic difference; and when I use supply statistics, graphs, or charts - I use a long timeframe - way out there past the end of my nose; like from 1997 to the present, or historic tables from the 1960's if need be. John; the mistake you make is using such short sightedness; quoting he 4 weeks from February and trying to draw a conclusion is ludicrous ! Conversely; you guys will make the same mistake looking forward. Never do I see you Gloom & Doomers calculate where we will be in 6-9-12 months if OPEC maintains current compliance, if demand remains the same etc ? Everything is a misquoted, spin doctored - piecemeal; use - what is to your advantage and ignore the big picture - mentality, John; also the is another Big- ''Really Big'' Item that is going to potentially CRUSH the shorts and cause the timid-Bears to totally miss the train here; and that is the OPEC meeting. - We do NOT need OPEC to do anything to continue either our very profitable trading ranges, or to continue to climb slowly and steadilly as storage supply declines and Oil prices rise. But - ''IF" OPEC announces new cuts - you guys are out of the game; Game-Set & Match. New OPEC cuts are the proverbial - Fat Lady Singing ! And you guys had better realize the opening act is now on - and you can her the Fat Lady warming up in the background <VBG> she's coming....! Try reading the daily & weekly Bloomberg, Reuters and various press releases on supply trend, statistics and prices . Also - how the hell did you not notice the upward price trend in Platters daily crude Oil prices <VBG> ? John - have you even paid attention in the last few months ? I am embarrassed for you and for your comments. ie: <<No Trend >>? You surely can not lack the intelligence to make this statement; so I must ask - are you spin doctoring, babbling, or just completely unable to do the most basic elementary research ? Sorry, but once again - chit-chat socializing aside; someone needs to separate blatant falsehoods from fact ! Sory, but your statement of: << ''The NOESIS chart for crude oil stocks is a month behind and have risen substantially (as much as 10MB) from the chart level. >> Are you serious ? Did you obviously not read the weekly EIA & API reports ? We are now only 300,000 boe above the same figures this time last year ? Did you not see the Crude Oil - ''pit'' traders in the Reuters article who were quoted on saying ''the trend in supply is down'' - and in case you haven't noticed as well - or in case you can't figure out by looking at that squiggly line heading ''North'' from $10 to $13 <VBG> that the price trend is also up... <<One week is not a trend >> Well; I think you actually made some sense there - but by mistake... Obviously- one week does not make a trend; but I would most humbly point out to the 3,253 quotes in the News of late; referring to the supply trend decliningg ! Where have you been ? Also; another hint; I know you guys can't see very far forward and don't believe in doing so - per the Invest LTD ''Oracle's'' comments of late; but try looking forward to what the Global Economic Policy will do the inflation, liquidity etc. International rate cuts, Global Cash Infusions will have their effect - this is a mathematical exercise John; not a philosophical one ! PS I must know; are you George Clemens ? We know he's out there somewhere ! Surely there can not be 2 people out there with this mindset ? C'Mon - will the ''real'' George Clemens please stand up ! Clueless, simply clueless... I'm all most starting to feel sorry for taking their ''candy''...

To: upanddown who wrote (38986)	3/5/1999 9:16:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

John Clarke; to be fair and to prove I'm not a ''Blind Bull'' - Let me at least point you Gloom & Doomers in the right direction <VBG> ! 1. Quit fighting the supply battle and using the ''It's the Price of Oil-Stupid'' Battle. The odds don't look good and you guys are getting bloodied ! You can use the - ''It's the Price of Oil-Stupid'' arguement again later however <VBG>... 2. Start using - ''It's the Earnings -Stupid'' because this is why I sold down to 50% cash yesterday. I will use the rising stock prices and crude prices as a trading/profit taking anomaly into the face of continued earnings downgrades. That is ''the'' short term story here. I will ''trade'' this ''transition'' in the Oilpatch, I still have substantial holdings near individual prices related to OSX 45-50 so I am in good shape if we have new OPEC cuts and a pop here; but realistically I expect OPEC to make chest pounding statements pledging complete and total, sooner, rather than later compliance commitments. I plan to re-buy when the euphoria and importantly the pre-OPEC short covering subsides. Shorting the post-OPEC letdown if no postive news is forthcoming is even a good short term opp. I will buy that dip - as the "Earnings'' story will then be the Achilles Heal used by Traders... one has to have a plan and one has to look forward to pick his targets/ambushes and opportunities. Without a plan, without looking forward - you are reacting to the market and chasing your tail here imho... only a non-trading - buy the dips and longterm holding makes alternative sense. To play the jump on the bandwagon - In & Out Mo-Mo game is to get whipsawed to death here. The constant changing positions as the wind blows here is the real world example of how to trade sentiment here. Sorry, but this board is a great contrarian example. Post OPEC we may have a ''Sentiment'' let down and most importantly the Shorts will Lay it On heavier than they EVER have ! - Bank on that fact Jack ! I will be laying in the weeds with my ''Guerilla-Ghillie'' Suit on and buy the dip again... then we will see the summer driving season and finally get a more balanced draw down in Diesel and gasoline products and the supply trends will continue positively. About post July 4th we will see anothe bounce off of Bullish consumption in the US and good supply drawdowns... this will be another selling/profit taking opp. That is also a good point; The Bulls should start referring to these trading opportunities as ''NOT'' selling - but ''Profit Taking'' opportunities ! Lets start using that Spin-Doctor-speakology. We don't sell - we take profits ! so , BEARS - start fighting the - ''It's the Earnings-Stupid'' battle; at least you have a chance there........but, be carefull - don't be digging your own hole too deep there either <VBG> !