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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (44053)	3/5/1999 11:34:00 AM
From: Rob S.	Respond to of 164684

Thanks. I think a lot of the success of Amazon and other Internet leaders has been due to their perception among "the young and restless" Internet savy. Buying books and music on-line is perceived as "cool". Even cooler was tying your own web site to Amazon's to collect associate commissions for selling their books. While it is cool for the techno-savy to push books and CDs on the net, I think it is not cool to push pills (unless it is herbs that helps you stay awake during final exams perhaps?). --------- Amazon and many other Internet stocks look very weak as the market is in a broad technical rebound. The leadership of the group appears to be severely tarnished. There are about 35 new Internut IPOs that are scheduled to come out in the next 60-75 days. Added to that flood are the many stock splits. And added to that are several millions of shares being sold by insiders and venture funds. Combine all that dillution with the fact that volume in the sector and leaders have trailed down dramatically over the past few weeks - just look at the recent volume in AMZN. This shows a growing lack new investors into the high flying darlings. Add the fact that news announcements, even those of major deals, have failed to ignite the enthusiastic buying that has occurred in the past. Then top all that off with the fact that the IRS has reported a large growth in early tax refunds - that has some analysts speculating that retail sales and the market is lifted by an early influx of capital that will be upset when the late returns are filed (procrastinators tend to owe). I have been expecting a Spring rally due to historical market patterns and driven by tax refunds in a healthy economy (money added to the confidence to spend it). My thinking is now that the rally may happen early this year and that following that the tech stoks will drop. I think this year will see a large amount of rotation into the cyclicals, financials and some foreign markets - and out of the dilluted Internets. Toward the fall, the sector may perk up to old levels due to the Christmas gift giving season.