Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (7563)	3/5/1999 9:03:00 AM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Lee, kind of off topic re the employment numbers. It is interesting how the market and the media not only built up a total nonissue of these employment reports, they never bothered to read and understand the remifications. The rise in payroll came in the construction sector while manufacturing, again, is losing ground. Construction jobs have one of the highest multiplier effects, something in the order of 4 if I remember correctly. On the other hand, it is one of the top industries with wild swings based on economic conditions. Aside from what this data may do to the market, what it is telling me that when the US economy finally slows down, it is going to be one ugly recession. Ramsey

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (7563)	3/5/1999 9:06:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Lee, >>>>> February Employment: February non-farm payroll rose 275,000 and the unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 4.4%; numbers are in line with expectations, but should bode well for the bond market nonetheless, helping stocks..... I thought they were looking for 245K, not sure how much it could be over before it would start the bond down. <<<<< The futures are up 17 right now since they claim that the number 300,000 was priced into the market. So the number came in below, so the bond market is rallying. I also heard the same that they were looking for 250,000 range. Granted that 300,000 is priced into the market but wouldnt the higher figure of 275,000 still make the FEDs think about tightening. So maybe a .25 rate increase was priced in. So the question then becomes at what highest level of interest rates will curtail the market from rising further. Is it 5.75% or 6.00% or what? Well if the market internals do not improve quickly and dramatically then the bubble is heading higher, but Im specificly watching the NEW HIGHs/LOWs. If the the NEW HIGHs can out number the NEW LOWs, and the DOW breaks the 9600-9650 area then I will change my position, otherwise it will still be a trading range trend. seeya