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To: Lee who wrote (107444)	3/5/1999 9:48:00 AM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Lee...in my mind, the big challenge will be after the euphoria wears off...where is the 30year going to settle? I think, though, we have broken the real pessimism that had ruled the bond/stock markets the past 5 weeks.... It is clear...there is no inflation...we should be as worried about deflation than inflation...it is a new era of productivity (due to rapid technology acceptance/implementation) growth which allows for greater growth/low inflation....fantastic....goldilocks lives.......the rest of the world is still in the crapper, however...and it will be a while before it comes around... Larry Kudlow of Skandia brought up an interesting point...We could see an additional push (bonds stronger) later in the year due to Y2K...folks could be hoarding dollars.. The dollar will only get stronger here, and, at worse, flat......No chance for weakening....Dollar demand remains strong due to world problems...dollar is defacto currency is several countries...Euro and Yen weak....Japanese gvt. is forcing the Yen lower with current policy (which the stock market there has reacted well too...so they will keep lowering rates to 0...000000 or negative)..As you know, this helps also keep the lid on inflation.. Commodities dead....Oil market rally will fizzle....Venezuelans, Saudis..can not hold production agreements...greed always gets in the way.... Companies have no pricing power...This is huge.. Internet will be a major deflationary force for years to come... Earnings getting better... I mean, what else could a market bull want? (Well, maybe a few things, but it is an incredibly healthy market environment short-term..as long as the 30 year trend down).. If the rally here fizzles out for some reason...I see a big pick-up by end of March (again) too much money needs to be put to work...we will be flooded with Japanese money itching to get out April 1st for better returns here...