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To: D. Swiss who wrote (107508)3/5/1999 10:51:00 AM
From: Mohan Marette  Respond to of 176387
 
Drew:Excellent work-Now if you have time go read that Chicago Tribune article on the 'deal' posted by Greg courtesy of Veronica Lake.It is a rather dispassionate and unbiased report and well worth the trouble and time.

Here is the link in case you missed it.
Message 8166836



To: D. Swiss who wrote (107508)3/5/1999 11:29:00 AM
From: Mohan Marette  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 176387
 
DELL/IBM deal-The Forrester Missive- 'Slam-dunk for both companies' Forrester Research.

Drew:

Here is an 'executive brief'on the Dell/IBM deal from Forrester Research. I think I rather listen to these guys than some schmuck biz rag writer or Wall Street Analyst.
==========================

IBM Powers Dell To New Levels

March 4, 1999

IBM's $16 billion, seven-year deal to supply components to Dell is a slam-dunk for both companies. But these firms should take their alliance further -- IBM could fill Dell's services gap and Dell could provide a face-saving way for IBM to exit PC manufacturing.


by Carl D. Howe

IBM and Dell today announced a far-reaching agreement whereby IBM will provide disk drives, semiconductor technology, network cards, and displays to Dell over the next seven years. Worth more than $16 billion, this is the largest OEM deal ever in the PC industry.
This Is A Great Deal For Both Companies

Forrester thinks that this was a smart move for both companies.

This deal's impact will be felt by the industry in six months as:

Dell integrates IBM's world-class technology. With IBM boasting world-class storage technology and semiconductor technology nearly a year ahead of Intel's, IBM's technology will differentiate Dell from the typical Wintel box vendor.


IBM gets a hot showcase for its OEM technology. OEM components sold to other companies already account for $6.6 billion in revenue to IBM. The Dell deal will put IBM components into market-leading products, power an annual growth rate of more than 40% for the IBM components division, and help propel IBM past its current 3% revenue growth.

IBM And Dell Should Go Further

Forrester sees this deal as just the first step in a long-term alliance between the two companies that could crown Dell as the new king of the PC industry, with IBM providing the bulk of its technology.

To cash in on the potential of this deal:

Dell should tap IBM for services. Dell needs comprehensive integration services to ramp up its server business to compete with Compaq. IBM Global Services could provide those services to Dell customers in a heartbeat and remove the final barrier to Dell's domination of PCs.

IBM should use Dell to exit PCs. IBM doesn't need low-margin PCs to grow its services, software, and OEM businesses. IBM should sell off its ThinkPad and Aptiva labels to Dell, integrate rebadged Dell PCs into its price list, and focus entirely on providing comprehensive high-margin solutions to its gold-plated customer list. By removing low-margin PC manufacturing from its portfolio, IBM could remove a big drag on its corporate revenues and profits.




To: D. Swiss who wrote (107508)3/5/1999 10:55:00 PM
From: Mohan Marette  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 176387
 
<China Watch>Economy to shift from '2-Wheel' to '4-Wheel Drive' in 99.

Drew:
I hope you heard the news about Dell growth rate in China posted by Lockeon a while ago. Now put that in perspective with what the Chinese government is doing to bolster the economy.Looking pretty good to me. Judging from what I have read thus far China should be a hyper-growth area for Dell and the growth has already begun-Can you say GREEN? Now 'git'em' bags ready you hear me.<g>
============================

China Shifts Gears to a "Four-Wheel Drive" Economy in 1999

(3/5/1999) China will follow three new key policies this year to strengthen its ailing economy, according to the March 4 Zhongguo Zhengquan Bao (China Securities News):

To change focus from the quantity to the quality of public infrastructure projects;

To recognize the importance of developing a flourishing private sector in China; and

To encourage domestic consumption.


Last year China announced a three-year package for infrastructure spending totaling US$1.2 trillion. The first year of that spending largely accomplished the goal of boosting economic growth to near China's 8% target, but several recent well-publicized bridge collapses have caused concerned in China over the quality the projects.

China's private enterprises have been growing in importance in economic terms ever since China began its sweeping economic reforms in 1979. However, the private sector showed signs of fatigue last year as fixed assets investment remained flat.

Investment in the state-owned sector increased by 19.5% last year, according to the newspaper. But the private sector languished, and village and township enterprises and urban private enterprises received very little new investment last year.

These decreasing levels of private sector investment are not expected to change. However, China's parliament, the National People's Congress (NPC), in a highly symbolic move, will amend China's constitution this week to officially recognize the key importance of a healthy private sector China's overall economic health.

A Four-Wheel Drive Economy

Last year interest rates were lowered three times, but savings deposits kept growing. At the end of the year, deposit balances were RMB 5.34 trillion (US$645.80 billion), or an increase of 17.1%. New deposits in 1998 were RMB 712.77 billion (US$86.19 billion), or 143% of the RMB 497.56 billion (US$60.16 bn) GDP growth in China last year, the newspaper said.

The 17.1% increase in deposits last year was the largest increase in the past seven years, and outpaced growth in retail spending for consumer goods by two and half times.

In 1999, the government will try to switch from a "two-wheel drive" model for economic growth based on public spending, to a more powerful "four-wheel drive" model which adds the stimulative impact of domestic consumption. Believing that domestic consumption will ultimately drive the economy, China will stimulate that consumption by encouraging banks to make consumer loans.

Infrastructure spending, the policy used last year to increase domestic consumption, grew 14.1%, compared with the originally forecast 10% growth scheduled at the beginning of 1998, according to the newspaper.

The "two-wheel drive" policies of 1998 were intended to expand domestic consumption. But the increase in investment did not result in a similar increase in consumption. Retail sales remained healthy in 1998, and China's total retail sales of consumer goods was RMB 2.915.3 trillion (US$352.52 billion).