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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (49890)	3/5/1999 12:04:00 PM
From: Alias Shrugged	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Hi Mike. Looks like a good day to light one up! I offer the following comments and musings FREE - so you know how much they are worth<g>. 1. It is not possible to reconcile valuations on US equities with events taking place in the world - especially those occurring outside the US. Non-US investors seem quite willing to hold dollars. The dollar appears strong (although what are bond yields saying?), and gains strength as one currency after another implodes (Ecuador's sucre has taken a nice hit lately). I figure if these stock levels are to be maintained for six months, we need 5 more rummy currencies to bite the dust<g>.<ng> 2. Yes, analysts are indeed blind, but if you smack them in the face with a 2x4, they do eventually react. The big story has been strength in "tech, financials, retail and drugs." OK, so we have to scratch techs off the list. (kudos to all on the thread who foresaw this). And I believe money is being moved from tech to the remaining sectors (recall the discussion of brain-dead indexed funds). Dow sets a new high; SPX close to new high; NDX nowhere close. So, the Apaches have nailed one of the covered wagons with flaming arrows; we simply circle the remaining three<g>. 3. Earnings will not bring down the market. Too easy to spin away as sector specific and some sectors will indeed have good earnings (Retail, although computer retailers are taken a breather here<g>; Autos, yeah I think buying a 5-ton SUV at The Top makes good sense). Besides, no fair allowing just the NDX stocks to achieve preposterous PE levels. We need to have WMT with a PE of 100 also! 4. Earnings will continue to worsen. The flight of capital into the US, pumping up the dollar, must just thrill all of the US-based internationals - KO, G, etc. etc. Pricing power continues to be ZIP. 5. The import deluge will continue. But I'm sure all of our trading partners have our best interests at heart. Hey, I didn't mind when the steel industry cratered (my purchases of hot rolled steel have been de minimus), but this banana dispute has nailed my Pecorino cheese! And I'm pissed. The best possible grated cheese to sprinkle on your pasta is Pecorino from Italy. (Just thought I'd toss in a little food tip for those unfortunates who think Olive Garden serves good Italian food - their current ads are making me sick!) 6. Mike, how did this Contajin thing hit us last time? The bond market and financial stocks, you say? hmmm 7. Money management and loss prevention. Mike