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Technology Stocks : Documentum (DCTM) Software -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wizard who wrote (436)	3/5/1999 2:47:00 PM
From: Tokyo VD	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 600

Wizard, Sounds like you have already made your bet. I'll wish you luck and disagree with your assessment. First, keep it in perspective, you posted your cautionary words here AFTER the company lowered guidance, not before. You were comfortable touting the prospects when the stock was at $40 on the basis that you thought the $1.27 for '99 was not only doable, but something management could exceed. Okay, you were wrong, but someone had to give you the idea that they could beat the number. Was it Chuck because even though you claim he was at an outperform, he was willing to talk up the story when it was going up. Frankly, Chuck has a neutral or outperform on his universe. He was burned by every company in the ERP space last year. Tell me, what value does Chuck bring besides his big picture talk?? Do you think he ever picked up the phone to call a DCTM reseller? I don't. He is great at having his lackies do his work for him (and those lackies have no idea about the mechanics of the market). While Vogel is less value-added, he is at least trying to define himself. So, now the stock is cut in half and the expectations are reset by management. I think your concerns would be more valid if you would offer some evidence that the environment is more difficult than management states (thereby making the reset expectations not doable), but instead you state that management has no idea how tough it is selling product these days??? HELLO, unless I'm mistaken, you work on Wall Street, not main street, so please help me understand why you feel your perspective is more valuable than management's. Now, at 60% off the year-end level, I also think you are misplaced to suggest that DCTM is ripe for a huge fall especially when management reset the numbers to what one might expect are more in-line with what they feel is accomplishable (there is no evidence yet that DCTM can't hit these numbers but you think it is so). IF you have evidence that DCTM is trying to sell software accross industry groups that didn't properly account for the Y2K issues, then by all means I'd love to hear it (I'd run out and short other expensive vendors that offer products that improve one's business but don't offer a near-term ROI -- How about SEBL??). Also, how do you reconcile the fact that DCTM, the leader in this space and $100 million in cash on the books, is worth considerably less than a competitor with a considerably less robust product offering and $25 million in cash? What would happen if the rumored threat from MSFT is actually turns into a partnership? I'd really like to know a company that you think is a buy because your buying YHOO and AMZN don't qualify under the investment definition you provided. YOU ARE TRADING TECH STOCKS, NOT INVESTING IN THEM. Tokyo