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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: O. H. Rundell who wrote (4329)	3/5/1999 2:40:00 PM
From: Cheeky Kid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9818

Expert is betting Y2K bug won't fly canoe.ca >>>>The problem has been around for decades -- de Jager has known about it since 1977 -- but he said technology-dependent industries chose to ignore it until recently. "Today, the situation is different because everybody is aware of the problem. There's a tremendous amount of hype and exaggeration, and now everybody believes the world is going to come to an end when, in reality, we've fixed it."<<<<

To: O. H. Rundell who wrote (4329)	3/5/1999 3:17:00 PM
From: J.L. Turner	Respond to of 9818

Hi O.H., All of the commentators seem to be struggling,to define the benchmark to which y2k can be compared.There is no past y2k so they compare it to recessions or depressions.This may turn out to be the major analytic error of the whole discussion.Recessions depressions are economic events serious enough when taken by themselves.Y2K is potentiality several magnitudes more dangerous than a depression.The mere fear of y2k could cause a worldwide depression.All it takes is enough folks(and/or businesses) to take out more money from our banking system than is available.Now you can argue that 3% or 5% or 10% or x% must be taken out for that to happen,but no informed person I know of says it can't happen. There are several other scenarios that are discussed that haven't been properly thought out.Consider the power issue.I keep hearing that blackouts and brownouts are no big deal it's just like 3rd world countries they say,we'll muddle thru.Muddle thru my a** most third world countrys have tropical or semitropical weather.Canada and the northern tier of US states have millions of people that would be at risk within hours of freezing to death.But you say we had the big ice storm and millions didn't freeze,and I say but with y2k outside help will not be there.No crews from Georgia in Albany this time around.If the pressure in the gas lines is lost where does the manpower come from to go house to house so that there are no homes blown to bits? You will be on your own.ON YOUR OWN!Think about it y2k will not come in a vacuum there are many many interdependencies.It has never happened before,how can we expect the programmers to find and correct all the interelationships.How can they know which problems will cascade? Is it even humanly possible?I don't know do you? J.L.T. "I would guess that at least 25% of households will have to deal with requests for power rationing(equivalent to what often happens during a heatwave) or transient brownouts and blackouts."