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Technology Stocks : Advanced Fibre (AFCI) ** IPO -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vegas who wrote (1930)	3/5/1999 2:20:00 PM
From: bevman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3299

Yes, it's true that should numerous (and I don't know how many) households in a neighborhood all attempt to access cable modem bandwidth simultaneously, then a significant degradation of speed could easily result. In addition, the cable companies' costs for upgrading their systems, all the way from the head end/central office to the neighborhood, are very substantial. And this is in addition to the cost of the cable modem. It's not at all clear that a successful business model is possible under reasonable assumptions of % household subscriptions, added fees, etc. Finally, if the politicians ever decide to "require" that equal access be provided to areas not inhabited by rich folks who can afford the new services, then all bets would be off and you'd never see widespread build-out of cable modem capability. Don't know what the risks are here, but this was a concern a few years ago when I was close to this area.

To: Vegas who wrote (1930)	3/5/1999 3:49:00 PM
From: Douglas V. Fant	Respond to of 3299

Vegas, Correct Cable Modem (or Hybrid Fiber Cable) shares bandwidth. So bandwidth and cost of infrastructure are cable issues.... Sincerely, Doug F.

To: Vegas who wrote (1930)	3/5/1999 8:05:00 PM
From: orson sanderson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3299

so much technical argument but bottom line is can AFCI make money versus the others. it is a case of novel against others. cpq vs dell etc. think I should short this still till 6 or should I take profit here.?

To: Vegas who wrote (1930)	3/7/1999 1:09:00 AM
From: Douglas V. Fant	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3299

Vegas, One other point on equipment demand- note the following: Billions to be Spent for Upgrades The demand for telecommunications infrastructure improvements to handle Internet-related data traffic is "creating a multi-billion dollar opportunity for component and equipment providers" according to telecommunications analyst Magill. He adds that this growth represents a "multi- billion dollar opportunity" for telecom component and equipment suppliers. A recent study found that companies will invest up to $23.6 billion by 2002 to upgrade Internet e-commerce systems. One other trend worth noting. Dr. David C. Nagel, AT&T's Chief Technology Officer, recently stated that "the telecommunications industry is restructuring itself in much the same way as the computer industry did 20 or 30 years ago. . . . Companies did everything from manufacturing their own equipment to supplying telephone services, but now the model is of flatter organizations concentrating mainly on providing access networks." Anotherwords, in this competitive market a lot of tasks are being outsourced to third parties while the telecom company concentrates on its core competencies. " If you'd like to see the whole article, called "Investing in the Digital Pipe" (or something like that!) go to : members.aol.com