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Strategies & Market Trends : LastShadow's Position Trading -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BoNg-N-BoNg who wrote (9794)	3/5/1999 2:35:00 PM
From: HandsOn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 43080

CNBC just featured DFG as one of the losers Today.

To: BoNg-N-BoNg who wrote (9794)	3/5/1999 2:47:00 PM
From: LastShadow	Respond to of 43080

Responses: The EGGS ofer is seen a dilutive to present shareholder equity, and withdrawing it might raise the price, but I doubt it. Short term trend for SPX should be good for first half of next week, but I expect a downturn after that. SDtill in the Bear fund, and plan to be until Mid March. The market is still overvalued and the only thing the funds are doing is pulling money out. Traders, about 25% of the volume on some days, would like to see the market continue going up, but there isn't any reason for the funds or indiviuals to go long at these prices in general. Those checking their mutual funds will still see a continued slide since about 2/2 and in some cases since 1/6. Fidelity magellan is tryig to hold its own, running between $120 and $125, also since the beginning of the year. The market has been running 5-7 days up, with 2-4 days down - larger downturns and smaller up days (we are talking SPX, not DOW here) and that looks to continue until something kicks it in gear. The reason for the belif that a correction will start the next bull run is that if we have to wait for all the overvalued stocks to contineu to correct indicidually we are looking at a 3 month horizontal movement. Light volume means everyone, fund and investor, is staying out of the market for the last few weeks. (Does anyone want to buy now for a hold position? I thought not...) To leave a horizontal correction and go UP, there would need to be some incentive for people to believe that stocks are either a good value or something macroeconomic to justify the risk. Wanting it to go up won't mak eit go up for more than a few days. It will continue to be offset by mini-corrections because its a short term hold mentality now. It an overvalued, overpriced, poor fundamental market right now - so when it does go up, there are lots of us to short it or pressure fear with a bearish put and force selloffs. The previously held association between inflatiion and unemployment is pretty much destroyed now, and the Bond market is creeping around making folks nervous as well. Japanese are selling ours and buying their own. The german Mark and english Pound and other currencies are maintaining par value for the recent exchange rates. So what will move it? Beats me. As John Kim said, it probably won't have anything to do with the financial markets that starts the selloff, but it would have to be to start a buy in. lastshadow