To: Tiley who wrote (20122 ) 3/7/1999 10:34:00 PM From: Clint E. Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 70272
investor.msn.com Robertson Stephens Tech '99 Coverage, Part II In last week's article, I promised to catch up with more of the sights and sounds of Tech '99, the Robertson Stephens technology stock-fest. Here are a few notes; more to come next time. Bandwidth, baby: We've talked a lot about the soaring stocks of consumer Internet service providers MindSpring Enterprises (MSPG), EarthLink Network (ELNK) and America Online (AOL), but there are a couple of other ideas that have not yet hit the mainstream. Near the top of anyone's Web value list today should be Verio (VRIO), which impressed investors at the conference with its strategy of becoming the leading ISP for the nation's millions of small- to medium-sized businesses that don't have in-house IT staffs to focus on Internet working issues. A Verio executive noted that despite strong competition from MCI WorldCom (WCOM), the Baby Bells and the likes of MindSpring, the nation's tiny independent ISPs still have 50% of the business market. The reason: Small businesses like the idea of being able to call a local salesman or technician for help. Verio is buying up a lot of those small ISPs around the world and keeping their local sales forces in place. The exec said only 15% of small U.S. businesses today are on the Net, but ultimately you can bet they will all be hooked up and require hosting services. He called it a $100 billion market, and no one around me flinched. Verio also has a strong OEM business. Four of the six top regional Bell operating companies use the company for Web hosting, which means that even when a small business thinks it's signing up with a Bell company to host its online widget catalog, it has actually become a Verio customer. (The names of the OEM clients are confidential). And in addition to providing connectivity, Verio is ramping up a program that will let small businesses rent time on super-expensive enterprise resource planning software from companies like PeopleSoft (PSFT). The company recently completed a $400 million bond offering that spooked investors, and it has not wrung expenses out of its 60-plus acquisitions as quickly as many expected. Last quarter's results were moderately disappointing, so the stock is not much above the level at which it became public last May. With the current price rising 10% this week to $31.50 after positive comments from CIBC Oppenheimer, it could see further strong appreciation if it stays on track -- either on its own or as "monster meat," the current slang for strong niche companies that could be acquired by Web industry giants. Already, a unit of MCI WorldCom owns 17% of the firm. (Its limited operating history, however, makes it, like most companies in the space, very high risk.) BIG Bandwidth, baby: A safer play in the same arena is fast-growing Exodus Communications (EXDS). This Web-hosting outfit used to be something of a secret, but the word is out now: It's considered the monster stock in the group of companies that seek to take advantage of the Internet outsourcing trend among large businesses. Let's say you're Yahoo! (YHOO) and want to concentrate on being a giant Web media company. You'd probably want someone else to manage, maintain and keep secure the vast array of servers and networking equipment that make it possible for consumers to hit your sites 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Enter Exodus, which provides this service for many of the largest names on the Net, including Yahoo!, Microsoft (MSFT), GeoCities (GCTY) and Lycos (LCOS). Trailing 12-month sales are smaller than Verio, $52 million to $120 million, but growth is estimated to be much faster -- now doubling or tripling each quarter -- and the company has become a darling among institutional investors. The stock has a 52-week range of $15 to $115 and now rests around $80. Robertson Stephens senior analyst Rick Juarez notes that average revenue per account at Exodus has jumped from $47,000 to $133,000 in the past year, and bandwidth usage has raced from one gigabit per second to an incredible 3 gigabits per second. "Its clients come on board and immediately start to consume more and more bandwidth," says Juarez. He compares the Web host to a shopping mall, where one day you might see the parking lot half full, and a week later it's packed, and the following week cars are lined up waiting to get in: "Data traffic passing through this company is enormous -- it's a great metric for the Internet overall." Juarez adds that Exodus is virtually alone in the field, and investor worries that large telephone companies will eventually become tough competitors are "unwarranted" because they've largely been divesting themselves of data centers, not adding them.