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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Berliner who wrote (8203)	3/6/1999 11:34:00 AM
From: Ron Bower	Respond to of 9980

Paul, >"Ron, if reason #1 is true that I'm totally out of the loop and have placed my last bet against China or HK. Still... I keep reading about Chinese warehouses overflowing with clothing & shoes for many months now..."< I haven't tried to say that the situation is good in China. I only point out that the level of the yuan is not the reason and that a devaluation would not be a cure. Like those projecting a yuan devaluation, you have chosen one sector that's doing poorly and are not looking at the complete picture. Clothing and shoes are products produced throughout SEA and every other emerging market with low cost labor. Consumer demand for these products has declined globally - every producer of these products has been hurt. As a counter argument, I can use examples like VTech and Legacy that have had revenue and earnings increases over 75% since the crisis started. I am betting on HK/China long term. Too many good profitable companies sold down for the wrong reasons. JMHO, Ron