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Technology Stocks : ADFLEX SOLUTIONS ( AFLX ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Douglas V. Fant who wrote (586)3/5/1999 5:19:00 PM
From: Kent Sarikaya  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 718
 
Very good points Doug about valuations and the future.
I guess my problem is the one that analyst_elena keeps
making that is the cash situation and meeting its loan agreements.

At this point in the game, any fluctuation in price is a dramatic
difference in effect, to the number of shares one can acquire and
possible future growth. I have $6,000 burning a hole in my pocket,
but if it dips to near $2 instead of around $3, that's an
additional 1,000 shares I can pick up, if it goes to $1, oh geez.

here is a table of how many shares for the same amount of
initial investment $6,000 and the subsequent gains if sold at $8/shr,
$15/shr and at $30/shr not including commissions:

ShrPrice #ofShrs Sell at $8 Sell at $15 Sell at $30
$4.00 1,500 $6,000.00 $16,500.00 $39,000.00
$3.75 1,600 $6,800.00 $18,000.00 $42,000.00
$3.50 1,714 $7,714.29 $19,714.29 $45,428.57
$3.25 1,846 $8,769.23 $21,692.31 $49,384.62
$3.00 2,000 $10,000.00 $24,000.00 $54,000.00
$2.75 2,182 $11,454.55 $26,727.27 $59,454.55
$2.50 2,400 $13,200.00 $30,000.00 $66,000.00
$2.25 2,667 $15,333.33 $34,000.00 $74,000.00
$2.00 3,000 $18,000.00 $39,000.00 $84,000.00
$1.75 3,429 $21,428.57 $45,428.57 $96,857.14
$1.50 4,000 $26,000.00 $54,000.00 $114,000.00
$1.25 4,800 $32,400.00 $66,000.00 $138,000.00
$1.00 6,000 $42,000.00 $84,000.00 $174,000.00
$0.75 8,000 $58,000.00 $114,000.00 $234,000.00




To: Douglas V. Fant who wrote (586)3/5/1999 6:50:00 PM
From: Robert Wuj  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 718
 
Douglas, I have been going over some numbers and wonder
what your take on this is. Last quarter AFLX had 39,628,000 in
gross revenues. They said that their revenues would be down
18% from last qrts. which would be 32,494,960 in gross revenues
for this qrt. Last qrt. they had gross margins of 11.5% excluding
the one time charge, so I will use that number again.
Using that number I come up with gross profits of 3,736,920.
Now assuming that total operating expenses stay the same as
last qrts. (they were 4,699,000 by the way), that gives us a loss
of 962,080. Divide that by the number of outstanding shares
which is 8,928,000, and we come up with a loss of .1077 cents
for this qrt. The only way I see any better number than that is
if gross margins are better than 11.5% and total operating
expenses are lower, but in no way do I see only -.03 for the
qrt. Your input on AFLX is always appreciated. Thanks. Robert



To: Douglas V. Fant who wrote (586)3/5/1999 7:34:00 PM
From: Dave Mansfield  Respond to of 718
 
Doug, be careful when you compare a company's share price with it's book value. The last time I owned a stock significantly lower than book value, they took a charge against inventory and plant and equipment which ultimately put the book value well beneath the share price at the time. Unless you're in there with the CFO you can never be sure that the stated book value is a true reflection of reality.

Still long, but not cocky.

Dave