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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: StockOperator who wrote (7624)3/6/1999 2:14:00 PM
From: StockOperator  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 99985
 
There has been a tremendous amount of cross-currents during this recent consolidation in the avgs. On the surface with market breadth deteriorating. And the tech wreck questioning the undeniable leadership from our Oct. bottom. This market has given the "appearance" of a pending meltdown in prices. With the media reporting on a daily basis the poor internals of the market. And the increase in the amount of puts to calls purchased in the last couple of weeks. This week's action has caught many on the wrong side of the fence. I think in this particular case it was the wide spread knowledge of the poor technicals of the market (by the masses) that was actually more important than the technicals themselves. Rarely does this unforgiving market give you the kind of lead time as well as telegraph its next move by information so widely reported. There were however definite signs that a breakout to the upside was highly probable. Despite the weakness in some of the indexes. The transports have not only held their own during this time, but have actually gained ground. Major money center banks were RISING, some breaking into new 52 wk highs on the backdrop of higher interest rates. Besides seeing a whole group of stocks breaking into record territory, MRK, WCOM and FDX just to name a few. But more importantly the fact that the longer term trends based on the observation of prices on their charts, were never violated. And in cases where they were, prices came back nicely.

I think its interesting to note that we have witnessed some interesting divergences develop from our rally that began in Oct. The first one being the obvious disparity between the advance on the NAZ compared to the rest of the market. Another was the subtle decoupling between most of the nutz and the NAZ 100. There were plenty of days when they traded opposite one another. Even within the group itself, the second tier stocks like ONSL, BAMM, EGGS, MZON are falling apart here just as the majors have rallied the past couple of weeks. Perhaps investors are wising up to any stock that has dot.com after it. Somehow I doubt it. And especially the recent strength of the DOW here as the NAZ attempts to work through its consolidation. All I think are positive overall as individual groups themselves rotate in and out of favor.

After looking at my charts the first obvious thing that pops out is the amount of gaps left on the charts. A lot of air exists between prices for GE, GM, MRK, CMB and of course the NAZ. Filling them would obviously allow technicians to sleep easier at night. I would expect to see some backing and filling this coming week. However I do not think we will see much retracement at all. And i do believe we're going to see another parabolic rise out of this pattern as many blindsided, reposition money back to the long side. We have already had a failed breakout of a triple top formation. Which took Joe Granville out of the market. The ability of the market to hold prices and now rally should cause a frenzy as money starts pouring out of the money market accts. back into equities. The charts are setting themselves up, (including the RUT) for a major move to the upside.

If my scenario turns out to be right I think it would be very wise to keep a close eye (and very tight stops) on any new positions. If I was smart money here (or played chess) and I knew that I ultimately wanted prices to drop from here. This would be my ploy to suck the masses into the market just before I pulled the rug out. Sentiment indicators are still very high. However, this rally may just indeed be the beginning of our next leg up. BTW, I do believe some of the smaller nutz that have been weak lately will rise again. We just might see more weakness first before they turn around.

Time will tell.

SO