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To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (44230)3/5/1999 7:39:00 PM
From: GST  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
 
Sarmad -- in this kind of move we are running on fumes -- highly combustible but not long lasting. There are two or possibly three parts to the end game here:
1) Bonds -- we will see bonds rally, but then the rally will come undone -- with yields down on weaker economic data but soon after up on 'real' Japanese selling. BTW, the rally today was in celebration of the end of Japanese selling a couple of weeks ago. The return of this selling will be a disaster for this market.
2) Stocks -- we will see a buying panic but then people will get a feeling of vertigo and will get set to 'run for the exits' -- with the bond market scaring the hell out of people.
3) There does not need to be a third part -- but there will likely be a spark to set off the fumes -- a major international 'development' or the perception of one would easily qualify. Lets face it the US market is pretty lame at pricing in the international side of the equation. Japan, Brazil, China, and Russia are the usual suspects, but not the only ones.