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To: djane who wrote (3287)	3/5/1999 11:53:00 PM
From: djane	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29987

New Study Says Global Telecom Market Still Vast, Untouched teledotcom.com •March 4, 1999 • By Jason P. McKay THE WORLDWIDE DEMAND for telephone service will grow in leaps and bounds along with most long term economic expansion over the next decade, but most of the growth will occur outside current US and Western European hotspots, according to a new study released by Deloitte Research (New York). The study noted that approximately half of the world's population has never made a telephone call, and that population is in developing nations. According to Deloitte Research, internationally there are about 150 million individuals currently on waiting lists for telephone services. This lucrative opportunity is extremely appealing to a number of players, including US incumbent carriers, as well as international supercarriers, the study said. That appeal is driven by declining costs fueled by competition., as well as ample room for international carriers that want to expand their global presence. ……………………………………………………… "In terms of volume and opportunity China presents just huge opportunities for both telecom equipment carriers and telecom service operators," said Dr. David Roddy, chief telecommunications economist at Deloitte Research. ……………………………………………………… However, all that glitters is not gold. Global telecom supercarriers as well as domestic carriers looking to vault into the fray for new customers must take into account the current financial instability of many of these countries such as Japan, Russia, Brazil, the Southeast Asia region and other developing areas. Additionally, Deloitte said wireless communications are likely to pull ahead of wireline communications on a global scale. Only a handful of US telecom firms have extensive experience with wireless said the research company. While some countries may be financial quagmires for some carriers, others are blossoming with possibilities. " In terms of volume and opportunity China presents just huge opportunities for both telecom equipment carriers and telecom service operators," said Dr. David Roddy, chief telecommunications economist at Deloitte Research. "The economic growth there will continually surpass the US's growth certainly every year for the next ten years," said Roddy. However China's growth will require patience and attention to rules and regulations, he added. In order to assist carriers in assessing the risks and possible profit gains, Deloitte has developed a strategy, akin to portfolio analysis methods of traditional stock and bond mutual funds. According to Deloitte, a telecom carrier's portfolio should contain multiple countries that have different risks and returns with a goal of balancing the entire package, while keeping risk is at a satisfactory level. leveThe portfolio model has been used by investors for years to determine the proper balance of risk and return on investments, said Roddy. Deloitte has taken this model one step further to adapt it to the international telecom industry, giving supercarriers a method to evaluate their global expansion strategies and maximize shareholder value, according to Roddy. Diversification for telecom carriers has bee on the increase recently for a number of reasons. For instance, incumbent carriers subject to new domestic competition look to joint venture with foreign carriers. Additionally, countries continue to privatize government owned facilities in many parts of the world. With opportunities abounding, this new push for diversification - telecommunications colonization - can prove to be quite profitable, said Roddy.

To: djane who wrote (3287)	3/6/1999 2:15:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 29987

China drops cdmaOne As expected. This is just part of their negotiating position with Qualcomm and the USA. China will not want to be paying any more royalties to Q! than they need to, so it serves their interests to put the squeeze on Qualcomm along with Ericy and everyone else. But just as Ericy is under pressure, so is China. Every GSM basestation they build is capital down the drain when they could be installing cdmaOne with an assured technology path to WWeb. Every GSM basestation they build, commits them to increased costs when it's time to convert to WWeb. Right now, every GSM basestation they install can handle less traffic per dollar with less functionality [think HDR = High Data Rate] than cdmaOne basestations available right now. Sure, they have GSM built out and until the path forwards is clear, they are best to stick with what is working well, but at some stage they will need to stop wasting money or be the joke country with the biggest legacy GSM network on the planet with the highest costs to convert. Maybe GSM prices are so low now in desperate attempts by Ericy to maintain some customers that they are almost giving it away and it's worth it to China to continue to fill out networks while cdmaOne prices continue to drop and technology continues to develop and trade issues with the USA are debated. So no worries about China canning cdmaOne. It's just a question of power, prices, timing, technology development and economic pressure. Maurice