To: memflyken2 who wrote (20363 ) 3/6/1999 8:06:00 AM From: brian z Respond to of 27307
from Weekly Web Report YAHOO! HOSTS FIRST ANALYST DAY: Yesterday, Yahoo! held its first analyst meeting. The meeting helped us better appreciate the types of services that Yahoo! is developing to transform itself from a portal to a network. With a reach of more than 50 million global users, international growth is just beginning with Yahoo! developing local language content and services in more markets. We believe the challenge is how to capture more time and economic value from each person. The valuation of $35.5 billion is now about $710 per person, compared to estimated 1999 revenues of $10.33 per person. This gap illustrates our challenge with the stock. Yahoo! has protected its pure, high-margin media business model. The idea is to enhance the value of content and services from others by packaging. Yahoo! has over 35 million registered users, which represent the core of its audience, and in our opinion, the key to its ability to make more money through better targeting. We were impressed with the fact that the company appears to be adding approximately 100,000 registered users per day. With over 167 million page views per day on average ending December 1999, people are busy clicking. Personalization has been sneaking up on us. Services now include email, instant messaging between friends, calendars, sports scores, stock portfolio pricing, news feeds, clubs and other forms for updated communication and information. The technology to integrate this quickly for tens of millions of people is not trivial and Yahoo! continues to lead in ease-of-use, in our view. The idea is to make your Web life more productive. The more Yahoo! is integrated into our daily lives, the more it will have value. Yahoo! has already achieved that status of being a global branded network, providing users guidance on where to find practically anything on the Web. In addition, Yahoo! allows users to connect to a large community, an opportunity which is significantly enhanced by its pending Geocities acquisition. Geocities provides users with a broad distribution platform for individually built, free home pages. We believe these individual and business home pages provide information that can prompt purchases across many categories. We expect the integration of Geocities will facilitate commerce at Yahoo! by generating leads to Yahoo!'s partnered stores. We expect the Geocities acquisition to close in the next 2 to 3 months. We estimate the combined reach of Yahoo! and Geocities will be about 60 million users, compared to Yahoo!'s stand-alone reach of 50 million users currently. We believe the challenge will be to maintain two brands. However in our view, it is easy to differentiate Yahoo!'s network from Geocities relatively narrow service. We believe the acquisition pushes Yahoo! towards becoming more of a network than a portal, offering more community services to keep users spending more time on its sites. Yahoo! Shopping seems to be evolving into a first stop to shop, despite being a bit slower than AOL and Amazon.com. The Yahoo! Shopping brand does not seem to have the aura of quality that AOL has achieved by using high rents to screen out weaker tenants. The functional focus seems to remain price, providing a listing of product availability, highlighting stores paying rent. The issue with this model is that it does not differentiate enough by quality of service, in our view. In contrast, Amazon.com and soon the new Lycos Network with HSN will have a competitive advantage with strong fulfillment capabilities. We expect Yahoo! to be more selective over time with the stores that it more closely integrates into its channels. With all of its huge traffic volume, Yahoo! is collecting more data about its customers than it may ever be able to use, but it should be able to push more targeted commerce offerings, with direct marketing evolving to be more powerful than having a branded mall. We expect direct marketing, including opt-in HTML email, to yield positive surprises for Yahoo! and its commerce partners. We expect broadband to enhance the quality and efficiency of the service and of advertising. While we expect some turf battles among access providers, we expect Yahoo! will take advantage of being an open network. For registered users, it can allow personalization of the service by indicating fast or slow access. As many if not most of Yahoo!'s users have fast access at work, Yahoo! is already a broadband network. Will Yahoo! remain independent? Its not obvious to us who could afford to buy it, although Yahoo! could buy almost anything. It has enough eyeballs to make the value of buying a media company modest at best. A merger with Amazon.com might answer some of our commerce concerns, but would be too difficult to manage. Yahoo!'s neutrality and objectivity is also a core value it provides to its community. Does Yahoo! need to buy more content to capture more time and money? It already packages content from most traditional media companies and the Web-based media and commerce companies. Its stock and sports channels, for example, seem to have grown up to be competitive with pure sports sites. This may be enough. However, given the company's compelling stock currency, we expect more acquisitions of the GeoCities scale will be used to accelerate the company's path of defining the growth of the Web.