Christian1310..."Do the math..."...This one's for you:
Join in: CB, Stiltz1, Sly, Zurdo, Don Morris, MonJim, Ratan La, Lynn, Annette, etc.
ROUND #2:
1. How much must NETR be worth in order to support NAVR pricing?
2. What's the NAVR Float at IPO???
REFERENCE:
1. C1310 Posts #9525 and #9529 dtd 3.2.99.
2. All of Scott Kleinhans' excellent, fact-ridden posts last week.
3. S-1 dtd 3.3.99 at 8:13am just before the geriatrics loaded the van and headed for Krispy Kreme donut shop. LOL.
4. My Round #1, Post #10387 dtd 3.5.99.
DO THE MATH:
Christian'sAssumptions:***********************************************
Start with NETR's worth at $500 Mil. Dilute 50 percent at the IPO. Discount etc addl 30 percent for final value in NAVR. Why not? He's been thru 10 IPOs lately.
My Assumption:*****************************************************
At IPO, NAVR Float is 11,452,500 shares. However, Everen can release additional shares at its sole discretion any time from Lockup securities of 6,472,500 shares. Details at end.
C1310's Math Model:***************************************************
.......($500 Mil)/(11.4525 Mil shs)*(50 %)*(70 %)= $15.28 per sh @ IPO
So, let's play games with NAVR's worth:*******************************
.......$ 1 Bil NATR Worth========> $30.56 per sh
.......$ 900 Mil================> $27.51 per sh
.......$ 800 Mil================> $24.45 per sh
.......$ 600 Mil================> $18.34 per sh
.......$ 400 Mil================> $12.22 per sh
.......$ 200 Mil================> $06.11 per sh
Emerging Results:*****************************************************
Does NETR have to be in the $ billions to support NAVR price over $10?
I DON'T THINK SO...I DON'T THINK SO...is there an echo in here??
Capital Stock (from EOY 98 and 3.1.99 per S-1):***********************
1. NAVR owns all of Outstg shs NETR (10K shs).
2. For now, forget NAVR Preferred Stock: 10Mil shs not issued.
3. NAVR Float--My Scientific Wildass Guess (SWAG):
...........05,922,500 Issue/Outstdg (Actual)
...........00,939,500 Stock Options available at IPO Date
...........00,535,500 Stock Options available in future
...........04,055,000 Balance of Unissued, Uncommitted, Authorized
...........11,452,500 Total
4. NAVR Common Stock Recap (S-1):
...........20,000,000 Authorized
...........05,922,500 Issued/Outstdg (Actual)
...........06,472,500 Issued/Outstdg (Pro Forma) subj to Everen Lockup
...........02,075,000 Contingent to NETR w/i 2yrs of IPO if profitable
...........01,475,000 Stock Options @ IPO and in future
...........04,055,000 Balance Unissued, Uncommitted, Authorized
5. NAVR Common Stock, Issued / Outstdg (Actual)
...........05,000,000 Owned:6 Indivs
...........00,882,500 Owned:VVTV
...........00,040,000 Owned:Donavan,Pederson,Andersen,Witzig,Mrs CEO.
...........05,922,500 Total
6. NAVR Common Stock, Issued / Outstdh (Pro Forma,Rule 144 Restrict)
...........00,550,000 VVTV Restricted for 1 yr after IPO @ $.91
...........05,922,500 Converted from Debt owed NAVR @ IPO @ $.88
...........06,472,500 Total...Everen Lockup Securities
7. Footnote:
...........There are typos in the S-1 concerning Shs Outstdg. Values of 50 Mil shs (p50) and then 20 Mil shs in most other places.
...........The value 5.9225 Mil shs is repeated too many times. I can't sort it out yet.
...........NAVR can issue Com Stk shs, in addition to 20 Mil Outstdg, any time they feel froggy.
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