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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spartex who wrote (25818)	3/6/1999 10:43:00 AM
From: George Papadopoulos	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42771

This morning I had to shovel about 7 inches of the white stuff in order to get out of my driveway and go get my Barrons copy and some coffee. And then it hit me... Novell.Com, best networking software, price could quadruple on the cover of Barron's... Never in my wildest dreams I could imagine all these words to appear on the cover of Barrons. Excellent article, not much new info that has not been discussed here. But it was interesting to see many more analysts saying good things about the company... What I find equally interesting is how timid their predictions are on the stock price, some saying it will go up 20% -25% or hit $30 this year or as the cover indicates quadruple in FIVE years from now. When all around them you see the money losing .com companies keep surpassing obscene valuation levels every day and here is our new profitable growing Novell valued at only $7.1 billion.... I wish they did not choose the name SCADS....reminds me of Scud missiles (think unreliability and destruction)...ahhh if this company had half of Microsoft's marketing brain we longs could have been retired now<gg> The white stuff is still coming down...a beautiful Saturday morning! George

To: Spartex who wrote (25818)	3/6/1999 11:23:00 AM
From: Greg Jung	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42771

Thanks for the link. Ignoring the hype ("quadruple in 2 years!") promulgated by the hype on SI and the pimps on the biz channel, the article was well written and had an even kilter to it. However to try to pass off the company as "an internet stock" with decent valuation by comparing it with Microsoft strains credibility. The plausibility argument is wrapped around NDS alone. A revenue of $40-80 billion is projected for new software while the current state of the software industry is that Oracle may have $10billion Microsoft $20 revenues, double that to estimate total. So maybe there is a new product that fits in by reducing management headcount by the 5:1 ratio heralded. This would be plausible in the largest monolithic networks but is not likely in a distributed environment, with the tribal clans of independent LAN networks that we have today. Good luck to y'all if you can transform the stock price into an "internet stock". At least it will make it a more interesting buy at $20 if a history above that can be established. Greg