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Gold/Mining/Energy : Swift Energy (SFY) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark who wrote (697)	3/6/1999 10:18:00 AM
From: Robert T. Quasius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1602

I would go with the low to moderately leveraged production companies with natural gas emphasis first. SFY is certainly a good one; so are EVER, XTO, and PETD. I've heard of a risk adjusted break-up value of $14 for XTO in Barrons. EVER is 100% natural gas, has the lowest lifting cost in the industry, has proven itself in extracting natural gas from coal beds, and has lots of drilling prospects left. PETD is also 100% natural gas, has lots of cash, and drills low risk Appalacian wells with partnerships (retaining 25% interest). When the turnaround seems more certain, look at AXAS and SMIN. These two are more highly leveraged and carry substantial risk if the bust cycle continues for another year or so. AXAS is highly leveraged, but has some excellent prospective major finds. However, this stock is selling at $1-1/2 (down from a high of $20) and losing around $4/share. SMIN has a book of $2 and is selling at around $5/16, down from it's high of $8. With the drillers, I like RIG, ESV, and RDC. I like RIG because it continues to earn an excellent profit. I have been steadily adding to RIG through their DRIP plan, which is excellent. Most of the big oil fields remaining to be found will be in deep water, and RIG dominates this area. RIG is selling at a dirt cheap valuation right now, and with it's "blue chip" status it is bound to fly when the street rediscovers oil and gas related stocks. ESV and RDC will eventually fly, but perhaps a little later than RIG. I agree that the boat companies will turnaround a little later, but they are selling at 1/3 of book and managing, no pun intended, to stay afloat. The seismic stocks will turnaround later on in the cycle. I like MIND and DWSN. Both are experienced in riding out bust cycles, have lots of cash, and dominate their niches. MIND leases seismic equipment, and DWSN perform geophysical surveys, etc.