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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Graham who wrote (19796)	3/6/1999 10:36:00 AM
From: dennis michael patterson	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 42787

Bob, as one with a moderately bearish bias, I am interested in what clues you saw-- other than the runup -- that might have tipped us off to this big move? I feel flatfooted, for sure. I wish I have bought AXP a week ago. What could I have seen that would have enabled me to see AXP (or MER or C) as good bets and not, as I thought, the net victims of the bond bears. Interesting, a smart guy like Chris goes to all cash just before the big move. If smart guys like Chris get faked out, I don't feel so bad!

To: Robert Graham who wrote (19796)	3/7/1999 1:20:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

Excellent read of the market as usual however there are a few things that tell me not to put on my horns yet. You mentioned following your stocks that you trade. I haven't been able to scan as many stocks as normal since I am limited on time due to some other work but the few scans I have run so far show even more stocks falling than befoer this rally. Many of the so called leadership stocks were still under distribution. The only stocks I saw going up were McDonalds, some banks, brokers etc. The Bank sector is nearing over bought on my index screen so further leadership there is limited in duration and many of theri charts formed island reversal possibilities. Brokerage stocks have been ahead of themselves for a while now. We are not even into earnings warning season yet and that has not historically been a time for rallies in our market. I haven't been through all the posts here yet but while you may be correct and I could change my bias as I get more time to scan and check the charts, I am still extreme short term bullish, short term bearish, mid term bullish then longer term extremely bearish. Explanation... Many of the charts I see show this rally could last a couple more days, then we should have at least a normal pullback/retrace but I feel it could be more than that. The only unknown is if there will be a few technical bounces in the tech land leaders that have still been dropping to offset the pullbacks in the ones that are screaming ahead right now. If this happened the indexes may not show much pullback. I then think that earniongs warnings will settle in, along with the realization that earnings are not accelerating at previous paces etc and a dip should result. Lowered expectations will as usual result in rallies as companies report beating their lowered targets for the final rally of the year. I think world events and the realization that earnings are extremely lower than past earnings across the board will finally force people to wake up and smell the coffee and realize paying perfect economy PEs for our slowing economy reality will settle in along with the unknowns over Y2K, Banana trade sanction affects from Europe, devaluation of China's yuan etc will bring us down for the rest of the year. I may dip a few longs but I am mostly adding puts here for the pullback that should come in a few weeks. After that dip, then I will go back to the long side. To change my view, I need to see better breadth ( 90% of my charts were flat to down on this explosive up day), Better A/D and High Low spread, and some leadership out of techs. Retail growth without Manufacturing growth did not get me all twitterpated as it did the rest of the street. That tells me we either stuffed the channel and had to shut down factories or else we are not selling our own goods but are instead helping other countries sell their goods based on their devalued currencies so they can export their way out of trouble which does our workers no good. Retail employees don't make the wages that over paid union Manufacturing employees do. Retail workers can't afford Ford Excursion $50,000 trucks for their drive ways and will slow future manufacturing growth. I have to go rip an engine out of my friends truck so will hopefully get more time to scan chart and read SI later tonight. Good Luck, Lee