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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Graham who wrote (37990)	3/6/1999 11:09:00 AM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Robert Graham: Actually I think predicting where the market is going is a fool's game. This is particularly true for the longer term. We are here to make money. You do not need to be able to predict price action in order to profit from it. Trading on expectations is a different matter. After reading your lengthy response to Donald, my initial response to you, is welcome aboard the ship of fools...<g> By the way, if one has no clue as to Market Direction, why would one invest in the Market? And secondly, in my book what you see on this thread and others like it are expectations not predictions. But heck, there is only a fine line between, the two anyway! Good trading… BWDIK Regards, LG

To: Robert Graham who wrote (37990)	3/6/1999 12:59:00 PM
From: Berney	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 94695

Bob, Re: A Fool's Paradise If you follow this and the MDA thread, you know that I've taken some heat for questioning the folks running around yelling the sky is falling. I tried to note that we are simply in a trading range and that it was important to note this in one's trading activities. I try to constantly remind a couple of my "students" that one need not (and should not) try to anticipate, expect, or predict what the market is going to do. These are human emotions that screw up any Vulcan TA system. One need only react to make money. This is where I appreciate some of the great minds on the treads such as bb, Death Dude, GZ, and SO (not being all inclusive) that will adamantly argue their position, but will turn on a dime and leave change. That was a great turn by bb Wednesday. However, let's separate this from the market internals. In keeping with the theme of the tread lately - they stink. Ever since GZ introduced me to his concept of the 25 day MA on the NYSE adv/dec, I have been recording the results each day. It peaked on 11/12 and turned negative on 12/10, and except for 1/6 to 1/12 it has remained negative. Nonetheless, my analysis of this data is that, like most TA, it is the direction or trend and not the numerical value of the indicator that is important. I maintain the same 25 day MA on the NYSE high/lows. Frankly, it is bothersome. It peaked 1/25 and in the 28 intervening trading days has continued to decline on all but two days. I'm still trying to collect the data to eventually come to some conclusion as to its relevance. However, I do have a hard time understanding (another human emotion) how one can expect a sustained rally with these anemic numbers. Berney