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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gary Burton who wrote (39098)	3/6/1999 1:21:00 PM
From: Big Dog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

FGI, et al, can all do ok IF the low oil prices don't last too long. The $64 question to survival is how long will oil prices keep drilling budgets restrained. It's really that simple. big loosbrock.com

To: Gary Burton who wrote (39098)	3/6/1999 1:31:00 PM
From: Think4Yourself	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

I am not concerned about FGI and GIFI. I believe they can "coin" it all the way through based on what I am observing. "All the way through" looks to mean the end of this year for GOM activity, due to the current gas situation/outlook. They also do not want to lose key workers, as they have been burned in the past as those workers have exited the industry and were to difficult to replace when demand picked up. Witness the McDermott crane operators brilliant manipulation of the fabbed deck recently <VBG!> The way I see it. when your equipment is in high demand at highly profitable rates, it is intelligent to put off "optional" maintenance/upgrades as long as possible. Now that there is slack time, these not-cash-strapped drillers are finally getting around to the "optional" stuff. Witness the Rowan CEO talking about all of their rig upgrades for proof. It has been suggested that the drillers will wait until things pick up to do these things. I strongly disagree. When things pick up, they will pick up for everyone. do the drillers want to lose contracts/cash while they wait in line for maintenance? Sounds assinine to me. They will maintain rigs as they come off service this year because they know the slack situation is temporary, and they would be fools not to take advantage of it. lastly, he who has the best equipment is least likely to lose contracts for "non-performance".

To: Gary Burton who wrote (39098)	3/6/1999 1:43:00 PM
From: SargeK	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Gary, The analysts have already forecast significantly lower earnings for this year and next, so therefore I think anticipated earnings have have already been factored into todays stock prices. Take a look at GIFI and FGI forecasts for this year and next. I just happen to think the analysts are wrong. Recent conference calls for these two companies reflect their thinking that the first half will be soft (compared to last years record levels) with a pick up in activity during the second half going forward. As pointed out previously the analysts have short changed GIFI earnings estimates by an average of almost 30% for the past 5 quarters. As some of the rigs are put back to work I can't help but think the fabs will also benefit. UFAB earnings seems to be unique in that they haven't yet been downgraded. biz.yahoo.com Even if the forecasts are reduced by 50% the PEG would still leave the company as an attractive buy @ current levels. FWIW K