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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (7665)	3/6/1999 2:30:00 PM
From: GROUND ZERO™	Respond to of 99985

hehehehehehehe, no.....<g> I was reading the posts and saw my nick name.....<g> My Best. GZ

To: HairBall who wrote (7665)	3/6/1999 4:12:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

INDEX UPDATE ======================================= As previously mentioned, I am on the verge of turning MID-TERM(30 days) bullish, but I still need a few more days of confirmation from the market internals. The NEW HIGHs/LOWs did significantly improve to NEW HIGHs at 83 and NEW LOWs at 40 which is a strong reversal, since previously the NEW LOWs were double the NEW HIGHs. However, we need to keep in mind that during last years strong runup JAN-MAR, the NEW HIGHs got was in the 200-400, so in now way am I turning long-term bullish. If the NEW HIGHs maintains FRIDAYs levels and continue to improve for a few more days then I will turn MID-TERM(30 days) bullish, but if the NEW HIGHs/LOWs turn negative quickly, then I will consider market is still in a trading range which has shifted higher for the DOW only, so far. Per my short-term technicals, the overall market is a CLASS 2 SELL, which means that the short-term TOP should arrive on MONDAY, but it could also morph into a CLASS 1 SELL on MONDAY if the market moves significantly higher with the TOP arriving TUE. So the window for the TOP to arrive is MON/TUE. If the forthcoming pullback is small(100-200 DOW points) then that would imply that would produce a HIGHER LOW and implies that the DOW could be heading higher. On the negative side, the NEW HIGHS/LOWS for the NAZ was still negative on FRIDAY with the NEW HIGHS at 57 and NEW LOWS at 83 while the NAZ was significantly up 44 points. The NEW HIGHs/LOWs for the NAZ is not confirming strength. We should also look at the individual components of the DOW, and of the 30 DOW stocks only a handful is really leading the DOW like GM, WMT, MRK, UTX, AXP. Keep in mind that he leaders from the NAZ are still significantly off their highs so the the momentum for the overall market is left in fewer and fewer stocks. Yes, I realise that such can chance, thats why Im watching the market internals carefully, especially the NEW HIGHs/NEW LOWs for hints of market rally broadening. I am expecting some sort of pullback in the next few days, and of course the NEW HIGHS/LOWs will decrease some during a pullback. Now if the number of NEW LOWs double the number of NEW HIGHs during the forthcoming dip, then I will conclude that the DOW is still in a trading range and should not move much higher. Also if the NEW LOWs gets back over 100, thats more negative. On the other hand, if during the forthcoming dip the NEW HIGHs still out number the NEW LOWs then I will conclude that the such dip will not be strong and the DOW should be heading higher. I still feel that the forthcoming dip is playable and I think the best strategy is to play stocks which have shown technical weakness recently. As for options, they should at least be APRILs. Just as the analysts say its a market for stock picking, such applies for picking stocks to short. There are plenty of stocks which are not participating in last weeks rally. Seeya