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Technology Stocks : 3Com Corporation (COMS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: hitesh puri who wrote (28805)3/6/1999 11:50:00 PM
From: Mang Cheng  Respond to of 45548
 
hitesh, these kind of big swings come with high-tech speculation. This is not a coms specific phenomenon. The only stocks that didn't have big swing like this are msft and cisco.

After said that the first leg of this drop from $48 to $35 was particularly annoying because there wasn't any forewarning signal and it happened very quickly. The chart looked pretty decent until the drop (this needs some further analysis in some future posts). It only took three days for the price to drop from $48 to $34 - a 30% drop. It showed once again that we really couldn't compete with AnaLysts who had insider information. Big boys would not react so decisively if they didn't have insider information to guide them.

The only signal that we could have picked up was that disk-drives had been dropping like a rock two weeks before coms. On the otherhand Semi was going up like crazy so that sort of really blurred my judgement.

Mang




To: hitesh puri who wrote (28805)3/7/1999 12:30:00 AM
From: jach  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 45548
 
3COM at this price is a good buy. Much better upside potential vs downside risk. The earnings shortfall is about 30% and 3com had since then dropped close to 50% from its high. all imo.

==============================

March 08, 1999, Issue: 832
Section: Small Business

Networking is growing -- Major Vendors Recognize
Resellers' Influence On Small Businesses
Herman Mehling

San Anselmo, Calif. -- As the small-business networking space grows in
spending power and market prominence, major networking vendors are
taking resellers more seriously. Little wonder. Resellers are the main
influencers on small businesses, and vendors know that intimately.

Networking surpassed desktops to become the single-largest spending
category for small businesses in 1998, according to the 1999 CRN Small
Business survey.

Networking hardware and software combined accounted for an average of
35.8 percent of total spending, up from 32.8 percent in 1997.

At the same time, the survey revealed that fewer small businesses fear a
recession now than they did six months ago-down to 24 percent this January
from 36 percent last September. The decline, reflective of the overall vitality of
the U.S. economy, bodes well for future IT spending by these companies.

So what do resellers want from networking vendors, and how do the vendors
stack up?

Resellers said their needs fall into four main areas: qualified leads, training,
quality products, and pre- and post-sale support. The best vendors to work
with are Intel Corp. and 3Com Corp., according to an informal sampling of
VARs.

The success of those vendors is rooted in two clear-cut strategies: creating
products the market wants and building effective support systems for VARs.

Easy-to-use, easy-to-install products, technical and marketing training and
qualified leads are "big deals" for the smaller VARs selling into the
small-business channel, said Tom Kilroy, director of worldwide sales for
Intel's reseller channel organization.

"As a vendor, you've got to proactively engage resellers by continuously
finding out what they want from your support and training services and
refreshing your services," said Jarek Chylinski, director of marketing, small
and midsize enterprises at 3Com, Santa Clara, Calif.

Intel, a relative newcomer to the networking space compared with 3Com,
focuses much of its channel efforts and marketing dollars on its certification
programs and training for resellers, said Kilroy.

"Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery," said Chylinski. "We've offered
certifications and training for years."

Superior training, support, the reliability of the products and the cache of the
brand name drew Innovative Network Systems to embrace Intel for its
networking needs, said Barry Loudermilk, president of the Atlanta-based
systems integrator.

"We used to sell 3Com gear exclusively, but the support was sporadic. So
when Intel started to be in our face all the time, we listened to what they had
to offer," he said.

Loudermilk seems slightly non-plussed and flattered by Intel's attentiveness as
his company only did a little more than $1 million in sales last year.

"Intel wants to win our business," he said. "It does a good job of promoting its
products. On occasion, Intel has sent us a site engineer to sit with us when we
configured an installation for a small business."

3Com makes reliable products for small business, its support is good, and its
prices are competitive, said Gibby Cohen, president of W.A.W., a reseller in
New York. "Even if its prices were not competitive, I'd sell the products
anyway, because they are so easy to use and so reliable."

3Com and Intel are both very aggressive with pricing, rebates and
promotions, and they both offer a lot of training options, said Jordan Scott,
director of sales at A & R Computer World Inc., a Brooklyn, N.Y.-based
VAR.

Still, Scott said he thinks Netgear-a business unit of Santa Clara, Calif.-based
Northern Telecom Ltd.-probably offers the lowest prices of any brand-name
vendor.

Netgear is trying to increase its presence in the small-business networking
market with its Powershift Partner Program, designed to strengthen ties with
VARs that build their own white boxes, said Stephen Dix, national sales
manager at Netgear.

It is a strategy grounded in reality. CRN survey data consistently shows that
white boxes are top sellers in the small-business market. In the third quarter of
1998, 35.6 percent of resellers surveyed in a CRN hardware poll said white
boxes were their best-selling units.

Through its program, Netgear plans to push sales of its networking equipment
within the system builder community and to establish Netgear as the brand
name of choice for these VARs, said Dix.

---

Small-Business Plans

- 3Com's easy-to-use, reliable products are a hit with some resellers.

- Intel focuses much of its channel efforts and marketing dollars on
certifications programs and training for resellers.

- Netgear is pushing its networking equipment within the system builder
community, hoping to establish itself as the brand name of choice there.

---

What Resellers Want:

- Smaller VARs selling into the small-business channel want easy-to-use and
easy-to-install products, technical and marketing training and qualified leads.

- Smaller VARs said the best vendors to work with are Intel and 3Com.

Copyright ® 1999 CMP Media Inc.



To: hitesh puri who wrote (28805)3/7/1999 1:14:00 AM
From: djane  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 45548
 
LATimes. A Loss of Focus May Be Cause of 3Com's Problems


Saturday, March 6, 1999

ANALYSIS
Technology: As networking gear firm's stock takes a beating, analysts
question its strategy and prospects to stay independent.
By ASHLEY DUNN, Times Staff Writer


s 3Com Corp. stock takes a pounding in the wake of a
disappointing earnings forecast, some analysts are
expressing doubts about the networking gear company's
strategy and long-term prospects for remaining independent.
Its popular Palm line of hand-held computers has done well
in the consumer market, but its other ventures--modems for
personal computers and high-end networking equipment for
businesses--have faced severe pricing pressure and increased
competition.
Santa Clara, Calif.-based 3Com says its sales volume
appears to be holding, but the prices of some of its key
products are dropping, particularly modems and network cards
for personal computers, which are quickly becoming cheap
commodities.
The central problem, said Joel Achramowicz, a senior
analyst with Preferred Capital Markets, is that 3Com seems to
have lost its focus, spreading itself among a variety of consumer
products with low margins and high-end networking gear that
must compete against the networking powerhouse Cisco
Systems Inc.
"At this point in time, I'm just puzzled by what 3Com is
trying to do," Achramowicz said. "Do they want to be a
consumer company or a networking company? They have to
make a decision."
Since January, shares of 3Com have fallen more than 50%--from $51.13 to its
closing price Friday on Nasdaq of $24.63. Its latest drop was prompted by
warnings from the company that its earnings per share for the fiscal third quarter will
probably be about 23 cents--a far cry from the consensus 36 cents per share that
analysts had expected.
Before 3Com issued its profit warning, company insiders sold as much as $178
million worth of 3Com stock in the fiscal third quarter.
Chairman and Chief Executive Eric A. Benhamou, Chief Financial Officer
Christopher Paisley and other executives sold at prices near a 52-week high of
$51.13 reached on Dec. 23, according to Washington Service, which tracks insider
buying and selling.
3Com Senior Vice President and General Counsel Mark Michael said all 3Com
employees have a limited time after a quarterly earnings report to exercise their
stock options. He declined to comment on any of the individual sales.
3Com plans to release its final third-quarter earnings report on March 23.
Farrokh Billimoria, an analyst with the San Francisco-based investment banking
firm of Hambrecht & Quist, said that at its current price, "it's clearly an acquisition
target."
Patrick Houghton, an analyst with the investment firm Sutro & Co., said that
3Com--the No. 2 maker of networking equipment--is a tempting morsel because of
its strong position in the quickly growing networking realm.
"At the right price, it would be an easy way to get a big share of the networking
market," he said.
On Thursday, the New York Times reported that Siemens, the giant
telecommunications equipment maker of Germany, was in preliminary discussions to
buy 3Com's telecommunications networking unit for $1.2 billion.
Neither company would comment on the report, although Siemens has scheduled
a news conference Monday to discuss a shift in its networking strategy. A source
within 3Com said the company will not participate in the news conference.
Achramowicz said a 3Com deal would be a boon for Siemens, but made no
sense at all for 3Com, which would be selling one of its best units with high growth
potential.
"I'm kind of laughing at this deal," he said. "If 3Com wants to sell, what is the
strategy? If they're not going to compete against Lucent, Alcatel and Nortel, then
they might as well sell the company."
Benhamou said the company has recognized its problems and begun a strategic
shift away from stagnated products, such as modems and network cards for
personal computers, to higher-growth ventures, such as hand-held computers,
high-speed cable modems, Internet telephony equipment and home networking.
3Com has traditionally suffered a seasonal drop in the third quarter, but
Benhamou conceded that this quarter went beyond the usual.
Billimoria said 3Com has been facing increasing pressure from Cisco--the No. 1
producer of networking equipment--in the market for small and mid-sized
companies.
Benhamou said the company wants to focus on the "edge" of networking--the
point of connection between personal computers and large network carriers.
But Achramowicz said it was defeatist strategy, conceding a lucrative chunk of
networking to its archrivals. "3Com just hasn't made the moves you'd expect from a
major player," he said.
3Com has ended up a powerful player in stagnated markets. Nearly half of its
business is in modems and network cards, yet there is little revenue growth
possibilities in those areas.
Even though the Palm Computing unit, which has become almost a required
accessory for the up-and-coming professional, has done well, it is in the end a minor
part of 3Com's business. "Even if the Palm Pilot did well, would it have made a
difference?" asked Billimoria. "No."
Houghton said that for all its problems, 3Com is still a strong company with a
well-known brand name that will serve it well as the cable modem, Internet
telephony and hand-held computer markets mature.
"3Com has had a tough time, but at least it makes money," Houghton said.
Bloomberg News was used in compiling this report.

Copyright 1999 Los Angeles Times. All Rights Reserved

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