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To: gnuman who wrote (75624)	3/6/1999 6:21:00 PM
From: Jeff Fox	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 186894

Gene, Your numbers are more believable. So I estimate ~125 - 150 Million PC's in the US. (Note Z-D estimated ~120 million mid ‘98). Sounds good so far... Based on Intelliquests estimate of 73 million connected PC's we have about half the US PCs connected. This sounds too low to me. There are few business applications where the PC works in a vacuum. From my experience I can't remember a single one not networked somehow. I'd expect of office machines something greater than 80% connected. For the home - what is connected? If a family has a PC with a modem and logs onto an ISP once a month, is this connected? Please note that the standard home PC now comes with modem installed. I don't know what the average life of a PC is, but if I guess five years, I get ~400 million PCs in use W/W. (An average of 80 million units/yr). Probably high. I'd guess that the average PC is 3 to 4 years lately due to technical obsolescence. Scratch 95% for the 386's and older and say 60% of all the 486's. This is an interesting subject, however, as beginning with Pentium a box has infinite serviceablility (i.e. it is fast enough to do a good job at its originally intended use). I bet that the average age is growing this last year or two. Assuming 3.5 years then your total w/w installed base comes down to 280 million units. Isn't this is more in line with other sources? Jeff