To: Mary Cluney who wrote (75625 ) 3/7/1999 3:04:00 PM From: Amy J Respond to of 186894
Mary, Sorry for slow response. I went hiking yesterday and just missed your post. Here are my thoughts: 1. Larry Ellison certainly tried to intimidate everyone into thinking it would. However, I don't think so. I think appliances will ultimately help poliferate Server sales. Although, I think some appliances will have high margins (maybe these should be called specialized devices) while others will be low margins. I also think it will help people "get into" the PC and act as an upgrade path into PCs. 2. I think appliances would accelerate PC adoption rate by getting more consumers into the PC. A family might have a central entertainment PC unit, the parents might have a PC, but maybe the children have the appliances (or the other way around ;) But, more importantly, I think connected low-end units will actually proliferate the server PC sales. The more clients there are, the more servers will be needed. 3. I doubt it. I bet the person who buys an appliance will start feeling limited by it and start wanting to buy a PC. It'll get them hooked. Re: Palm Pilot - I agree with you. In fact, Kmart sells for $15 a device which suits the needs of Palm Pilot wanna bees but is tailored for consumers who don't have PCs. I don't think the Palm Pilot is the right appliance to get people hooked. An email-only better-made appliance would be. I read someone just got funding for this email-only app device. 4. Re: examples of appliances: there's the company which is making the email-only apps, then there's the company who is developing the stock-only app, and then there are others. Re: "dense sometimes, but ... don't understand this appliance thing." You've got fabulous intution and market insight and I learn by your comments. The problem isn't with you, the problem is with the appliances and how these are getting funded - probably by Korean companies. Consequently, there's not too much information floating around in the US on this stuff. I don't think appliances will make many in-roads for a couple of years. A person can kind of figure this stuff out by reading about who gets funding on what products and which parts are selling when; or, by listening to questions which get asked in trade show seminars (e.g. the stock appliance.) Re: "adoption rate of PCs" I think it'll be 1B PCs relatively soon. I'm bullish on Intel (long-term.) I just bought some more this week at 112 3/4. But, realistically, I bet the stock could sit for a bit and maybe even dip. Especially when the analysts have their eyes only on the very short-term (i.e. mood of the day.) And I'm glad they do, because this makes for great buying opportunities. Although, I don't think it is fair for people with no computer knowledge who have to make their decisions from what the analysts say. I think the Server sales with etailing, websighting, and multimedia will make a significant high-margin impact. The Internet will do great things for PC server sales. Got to go. Hiking again. Amy J