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To: Rob Prickett who wrote (8855)3/7/1999 12:02:00 AM
From: Arnie Doolittle  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10227
 
Rob, y2k may or may not be a problem for the markets. IMHO the problems on the near term horizon have nothing to do with y2k but you're right that once things start down hill it doesn't take much to keep it going. Since 1990 I've been a believer in the market's ongoing march forward. Recently I've changed my mind and have taken steps to protect myself. There are times when one must focus on capital preservation rather than capital appreciation. For me, that time began last week. I still believe in NXTL's potential and its future success but I don't believe that the greater market is currently conducive to equities investments. Accordingly, I reduced my NXTL position last Monday and further on Wednesday. For now I'm comfortable with my remaining position.

Let me say that I may be wrong as my timing record is less than perfect (gross understatement) so my advice to others is to do your own independent research and come to your own conclusions.

Peace.

Arnie



To: Rob Prickett who wrote (8855)3/7/1999 12:03:00 AM
From: Kevin F. Spalding  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10227
 
Rob,
My full-time position now is program management in fixing the US Navy's Y2K problem. We've made one ^*(^(*& of a lot of headway in getting there and we've got a way to go, but we'll get there. Aside...I view Y2K as something like the change in GATT(General Accounting .... sp? Al help me here) a few years ago where companies were no longer able to amoritize retirement costs forward and had to write them off in the current year being a big tax on earnings across a lot of companies...I see the same thing happening here. I see some big "one time" write offs in fourth quarter 1999/first quarter 2000 to pay for the fixes.
Yes, I do see a lot of litigation next year against companies that weren't prepared. I've thought about hiring myself out as an expert witness in what companies should have done...the money is great! $3,000/day {100 shares of NXTL?}. Anyway, I've been considering shorting "Spiders" later in the year against what I see as a major correction based on these expenses early next year. Also considering a way to short a basket of insurance companies as they will be the ones to probably pay for most of these lawsuits.
I have heard many of my comtemporaries, in the Y2K business, have run off and built bunkers in Montana or New Mexico. I won't go that far, but I will fill an extra bottle of propane, have a grand or so in cash and maybe a few gold coins and a decent supply of non-perishable food. After all in Southern California, we should have that all the time with the earthquake risk.
Food for thought...Comments??????

Kevin