A poster to csy2k has done some basic research to the import/export question which has put "flatsville" to shame. See a preliminary survey of where the weaknesses may be at:
x8.dejanews.com[ST_rn=ps]/getdoc.xp?AN=452053970&search=thread&threaded=1&CONTEXT=920819795.1077084249&HIT_CONTEXT=920819759.1077870643&hitnum=0
Import/Export and Y2K
Author: doggystyle <arfarf@doggydoggy.com>
Date: 1999/03/06
Forum: comp.software.year-2000
sponsored by:
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There seems to be a growing consensus that countries throughout the
world will be devastated by Y2K, even if the U.S. escapes relatively
unscathed. Furthermore, there seems to be widespread acceptance of the
idea that significant international transport failures are likely --
i.e. in shipping, ports, airlines, airports, trains, mail etc.
As an admittedly preliminary attempt to understand the effects of all
this, I looked up a Table entitled +Imports and Exports of Leading
Commodities+ in the 1999 Time Almanac. This Table gives 1997 import and
export amounts for the U.S. in millions of dollars for a range of
commodity types. As a primitive measure of export or import dependence,
I simply divided the import amount by the export amount. For example,
for Aluminum the figures are: 3,761 exports, 5,558 imports. Thus my (IR(JI/E
(IS(J value for Aluminum is 5,558/3,761 = 1.48. I then determined the Top 15
(i.e. those commodities for which I/E is highest) and the Bottom 15
(i.e. those for which I/E is lowest).
The results were as follows:
TOP 15
1. Coffee 510.7
2. Sugar 319.3
3. Gem diamonds 70.36
4. Crude oil 69.35
5. Footwear 17.48
6. Pottery 16.6
7. Natural gas 16.32
8. Travel goods 11.61
9. Watches/clocks/parts 9.18
10. Jewelry 6.2
11. Clothing 5.7
12. Alcohol bev., distilled 4.54
13. Toys/games/sporting goods 4.54
14. Platinum 4.45
15. Liquefied propane/butane 3.9
BOTTOM 15
1. Soybeans 0.01
2. Cotton, raw, and linters 0.02
3. Corn 0.02
4. Wheat 0.08
5. Hides and skins 0.09
6. Animal feeds 0.14
7. Coal 0.18
8. Cigarettes 0.20
9. Rice 0.23
10. Spacecraft 0.23
11. Airplanes and airplane parts 0.25
12. Meat and preparations 0.39
13. Gold, nonmonetary 0.53
14. Mineral fuels 0.55
15. Scientific instruments 0.58
THOUGHTS
1) Although we seem to have a very great import dependence on coffee,
my first thought was (IR(JWho cares? Who needs coffee?(IS(J (even though I like
coffee very much). But then I realized that here in the U.S. (and
elsewhere, i.e. Europe, Japan etc.) there is a huge service industry
devoted to coffee (i.e. Starbucks, espresso bars).
2) The same point holds for sugar. Who needs sugar? The answer seems to
be +everybody+. consider the industries which depend on it: gum, candy,
bakery goods, soda pop, breakfast cereal etc. It would be an interesting
statistic to know the amount (% by weight) of sugar in a typical
American supermarket.
Also, I know that Colorado was a major sugar producer at one time; my
uncle and mother told me that, in their youth, there was an all
pervasive foul odor in some regions of the state due to the refining of
sugar beets. I have never smelled this odor, only heard about it.
3) The figures seem to bear out some rather widely held stereotypes
about foreign manufactures, i.e. that foreigners have been relegated to
the sweatshop and knick-knack jobs. We might reasonably expect some
stress in the retail area, particularly in: shoes, clothing, high-end
luxuries (spirits, jewelry etc.), toys, sporting goods and so on.
4) One effect which I haven(IU(Jt heard anyone mention is the question of
off-shore manufacturing. This was all the rage both in the U.S. and
Japan in the late 80s and early 90s, the idea being that multinationals
could cut costs by transferring manufacturing jobs to cheap labor
countries. However, aren(IU(Jt these the very same countries who are Y2K
laggards, and whose power/water/telecom etc. very well might bite it?
How about the +malquidores+ (sp?) across the U.S. border in Mexico? How
dependent is the U.S. on them, and what is their infrastructure
prognosis?
5) In a massive transport and foreign economic foul-up, it would seem
reasonable to expect two opposite effects: dwindling supplies and higher
prices of commodities on which we are import dependent, and gluts and
lower prices of commodities on which we are export dependent.
6) Looking to the BOTTOM 15, we see that 9/15 (if we include
cigarettes) are agricultural products. Thus the figures seem to confirm
what we are seeing even today: farmers on the ropes due to product gluts
and low prices. Today this seems to be due to the poor economic
situation in countries other than U.S., but we might expect this effect
to intensify due to further Y2K-induced economic and transport
deterioration. This view also seems confirmed by #11 (Airplanes and
airplane parts) -- didn(IU(Jt Boeing announce some major layoffs this fall?
7) Since America is such a heavy agricultural producer, couldn(IU(Jt this
have adverse effects on the +hunger+ of people in other countries if
transport fouls-up. And how might this affect off-shore manufacturing
plants? Couldn(IU(Jt this too accelerate unrest overseas?
8) Obviously, this whole exercise is primitive in the extreme and has
numerous holes in it. It did, however, open my eyes to a number of
dependencies I had not considered. Perhaps I will follow this up in more
detail as time goes on, and would welcome any suggestions.
doggystyle
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