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Strategies & Market Trends : Graham and Doddsville -- Value Investing In The New Era -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: porcupine --''''> who wrote (1430)	3/7/1999 1:31:00 PM
From: porcupine --''''>	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1722

Retail Sales Seen Rising in February as Consumers Keep U.S. Economy Lively Retail Sales Seen Advancing in February: U.S. Economy Preview Washington, March 7 (Bloomberg) -- Consumer spending is keeping the U.S. economy in the fast lane. Retail sales probably accelerated in February, advancing an estimated 0.8 percent after climbing 0.2 percent during January, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. Excluding autos, sales probably rose 0.6 percent during February after increasing 0.2 percent in January, analysts said. The Commerce Department is scheduled to issue the report Thursday. Strength in consumer spending ''can be credited to three economic conditions -- low inflation, low interest rates and a fully employed workforce,'' said Richard Yamarone, an economist at Argus Research Corp. in New York. Retailers' sales at stores open more than a year already registered a larger-than-expected gain of 7.6 percent in February, industry figures showed last week. Sales have exceeded estimates five months in a row as the strong economy leaves shoppers flush with cash. Reports this week on employment and inflation are expected to add to the positive outlook. The Labor Department is expected to report that initial claims for state unemployment benefits stayed low over the past week. Claims probably totaled 289,000 compared with 286,000 the week before last, analysts said. That report will also be released Thursday. Meantime, a report on prices paid to factories, farmers and other producers is expected to provide scant evidence of inflation. The producer price index probably fell 0.1 percent in February after rising 0.5 percent in January, analysts said. Outside of food and energy costs, the PPI probably rose 0.1 percent last month after falling 0.1 percent, analysts said. Productivity Rising A gain in business efficiency is key to why the economy can keep growing without inflation accelerating. A Labor Department report set for release Tuesday is expected to underscore that point. Worker productivity probably increased at a 4.3 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of last year, analysts said, following a 2.5 percent gain during the third quarter. The expectation is that fourth quarter productivity was even stronger than a preliminary report of a 3.7 percent pace -- which already was the strongest showing in almost three years. Companies have poured money into computers and other innovations to boost efficiency and reduce costs. That investment and innovation continues, meaning the Fed doesn't have to rush to tighten credit, analysts said. Over the past decade, productivity gains have averaged 1.1 percent; in the past three years, the gains have been closer to 2 percent. ''Improved productivity probably explains why the American economy has done so well,'' Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said earlier this year in testimony to Congress. Inventories and Trade In other economic reports this week: -- Inventories at the nation's wholesalers probably increased 0.1 percent in January after rising 0.5 percent during December, analysts said. The Commerce Department is schedule to release that report Tuesday. -- Total business inventories, meantime, probably increased 0.1 percent in January after holding steady in January. The Commerce Department is scheduled to issue those statistics on Friday, wrapping together retail, wholesale and manufacturing inventories. -- The current account balance -- the broadest gauge of international trade in goods, services and financial transactions -- probably narrowed in the fourth quarter to $59.5 billion from $60.3 billion in the third quarter. The Commerce Department is scheduled to release that report Thursday. This Week Date Time Period Indicator BN Survey Prior 3/9 8:30 January Wholesale Inventories 0.1% 0.5% 3/9 8:30 January Wholesale Sales 0.2% 1.2% 3/9 10:00 4th Qtr R Productivity 4.3% 3.7% 3/11 8:30 March 6 Initial Jobless Claims 289K 286K 3/11 8:30 February Retail Sales 0.8% 0.2% 3/11 8:30 February Retail Sales Ex-autos 0.6% 0.2% 3/11 10:00 4th Qtr Current Account -$59.5B -$60.3B 3/11 10:00 February Import Prices -0.1% 0.2% 3/12 8:30 January Business Inventories 0.1% 0.0% 3/12 8:30 January Business Sales 0.1% 1.0% 3/12 8:30 February Producer Price Index -0.1% 0.5% 3/12 8:30 February PPI Ex-food & energy 0.1% -0.1% 3/12 9:00 February Atlanta Fed 10.5 10.3 Federal Reserve, Treasury Events On Monday, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan speaks to the Mortgage Bankers Association's Washington Leadership Conference in Washton. Also Monday, Fed Governor Edward Gramlich delivers luncheon speech at Conference on Business Access to Capital and Credit in Arlington, Virginia, and Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Michael Moskow speaks to the Wisconsin Bankers Association in Phoenix. On Tuesday, Greenspan delivers a luncheon speech at the Conference on Business Access to Capital and Credit in Arlington, Virginia. Richmond Fed President Alfred Broaddus speaks to the Winston-Salem Rotary Club in North Carolina. Broaddus also speaks to the Robert Morris Associates of Roanoke, Virginia. On Thursday, Philadelphia Fed President Edward Boehne speaks to the Wharton School Securities Industry Program in Philadelphia. And on Friday in Biloxi, Mississippi, St. Louis Fed President William Poole speaks to the Mississippi Young Bankers Association.