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Biotech / Medical : PFE (Pfizer) How high will it go? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Barron Von Hymen who wrote (7154)	3/7/1999 8:54:00 AM
From: BigKNY3	Respond to of 9523

The Peabody Mini-Report: 3/7/99 The PRN Mini- Peabody Report is intended to foster conversation on the PFEr Board. Comments are welcome and encouraged. Invest only after conducting your own research. Have PFun! BigKNY3 __________________________________________________________ Friday's PFE Stats (3/05/99): A historic day for the Dow and PFE PFE Versus the Dow- Intraday quicken.com DOW JONES: Close: 9,736 PFE - PFIZER INC Last Price: 136 9/16 at 17:01 Change: Up 3 11/16 (+2.78%) High: 136 9/16 at 16:02 All-time PFE High Low: 133 13/16 at 10:18 Open: 134 1/4 Previous Close: 132 7/8 on 3/4 Volume: 2,790,000 Relatively low volume 30-Day Avg. Volume: 2,909,000 Shares Outstanding: 1,297,794,000 52-Week High: 136.56 52-Week Low: 84.12 Beta: 1.03 Yield: 0.60% P/E Ratio: 53.6 EPS: 2.55 _____________ The Peabody Model Short-Term PFE Trend: Moving Higher to $140 The pending Peabody Peak was raised last Friday to 136.56. Da Model predicts PFE is heading higher to a new Peabody Peak of $140. Target Peabody Peak: The target Peabody Peak is 139.84 (+2.4%) by 3/11/99. Target Peabody Valley: If the Model is wrong and PFE heads down, the target Peabody Valley is 125.00 (-8.5%) by 3/14/99. The Valley Strike Price is 126.93. Predicted PFE Level: At the curent Dow level of 9,736, the predicted PFE price is 137.80..... Accordingly, PFE is currently 0.9% underpriced as compared to historical Dow and PFE trends. Da Short-term PForecast (3/07/99) PFE: 136.56, Dow: 9,736: An all-time Dow and an all-time PFE high...funny how that happens. Da Gut Feel: PFE will now battle at $140. Expect profit-taking at all time highs and even a possible drop back to the high 120s. But, in this positive market environment, PFE is heading higher to the long awaited $150 level. How soon? Sounds like a PFEr Challenge to me. Suggested PFE Buying Range: $119 to $127 (3/07/99) The Peabody Portfolio: We have a double! The Peabody Portfolio consists of 29 PFE purchase recommendations listed on the PFEr Board since August 14, 1996. The Portfolio has purchased 4,500 PFE shares at an average price of $68.29 (only 3.5% off the subsequent next PFE Valleys). # PFE purchases since 8/14/96: 29 % of purchases in the black: 100% # PFE shares purchased: 4,500 Average PFE purchase price: $68.29 Annualized return: 89.0% Current return: 100.0% # PFE purchases since 1/01/99: 2 % of purchases in the black: 100% # PFE shares purchased: 200 Average PFE purchase price: $113.63 Annualized return: 137.7% Current return: 20.2% Date............#..........Purchase Purchased...Shares...Price 8/14/96:..... 200 ........$36.38 10/25/96:....200 .........$40.44 12/4/96:......200..........$41.69 12/12/96:.....200.........$40.50 12/16/96:.....200.........$40.44 12/31/96:....200..........$41.50 1/2/97:........200.........$40.94 1/28/97: ......200..........$42.38 2/28/97:.......200...........$45.69 3/24/97:.......200...........$44.88 3/27/97:.......200...........$42.81 3/31/97:........200..........$42.56 8/8/97:..........200..........$55.13 4/16/98:........200...........$97.00 4/27/98:........200...........$113.00 5/7/98:..........200...........$107.50 5/15/98:.........100..........$105.00 5/27/98 :........100 .........$101.75 7/06/98 :........100 .........$106.00 7/29/98 :........100 .........$110.50 8/05/98 :........100 .........$104.00 8/07/98 :........100 .........$102.63 8/11/98..........100..........$100.00 9/01/98..........100..........$97.63 10/06/98.........100..........$94.00 10/09/98.........100..........$89.00 10/14/98.........100..........$89.50 01/10/99.........100........$117.00 01/12/99.........100........$110.25 Total:............4,500.........$68.29 ______________________________________________________ Peabody Peaks & Valleys: Updated 3/7/99 Listed below is an updated summary of the Peabody Peaks and Valleys since 1/04/90. The columns include the following data: - PFE prices - % change since the previous Peabody Valley or Peak - # of days from the last Peabody Valley or Peak - # of high volume days associated with the Peabody Valley or Peak - predicted next Peabody Valley or Peak using the Model - difference between the predicted Peabody price and the actual price . ___________________________________________________ ................................................................................ Predicted .........................................% Chg... # Days..High Vol..Peabody....% Diff ...............................PFE.....Last........Last....Days ....Next Pred..Peabody/ Peak/Valley.. Date...Price...Vall/Pk....Val/Pk. W/ Date...Vall/Pk....Actual 1....Peak.....1/4/90....9.06.................................. 2....... 6.92........1.5% 2....Valley...2/26/90...6.81.....-24.8%..... 53........12......11.31.......19.0% 3....Peak.... 7/31/90...9.50......39.4%.....155.......21........7.31....... -8.7% 4....Valley...8/23/90...8.00.....-15.8%..... 23..........1.......12.61 .....-41.3% 5....Peak.....2/30/91..21.50...168.8%... 494 .........9.......18.07...... 4.9% 6....Valley...2/19/92...17.22...-19.9%......51..........8.......22.76...... 19.2% 7....Peak.....2/27/92...19.10....10.9% .......8 .........2.......15.91...... -6.4% 8...Valley....4/28/92...17.00....-11.0%......61.........3.......22.52....... 8.2% 9....Peak.....8/20/92...20.81.....22.4%....114........4........17.45 .......+0.4% 10..Valley...10/5/92....17.38....-16.5%......46.......10.......22.93.......14.7% 11..Peak.....2/14/92 ...20.00.....15.1%......70........3.......16.72........27.4% 12..Valley....2/22/93 ...13.13 ...-34.4%..... 70 .....33.......18.25 ......14.5% 13..Peak.....3/11/93 ...15.94 ....21.4%......17 . .....3.......13.08 .... -8.2% 14..Valley....3/24/93 ...14.25 ...-10.6%......13........1........19.49......3.1% 15..Peak.....6/17/93 ...18.90.....32.6%...... 85.......6.......15.73 .....13.1% 16..Valley...8/16/93 ...13.92 ....-26.4%..... 60.....13.......19.13 .....17.2% 17..Peak.....9/03/93....16.31......17.2%......18.......1.......13.41......-7.1% 18..Valley...10/04/93...14.44 ....-11.5%......31.......1.......19.70 .....11.9% 19..Peak.... 12/30/93...17.60 .....21.9%......87.......0......14.57 .......9.7% 20..Valley....3/31/94....13.29 ....-24.5%......91.......2......18.43......-18.1% 21..Peak......3/29/95....22.50.....69.4%.....363......3......18.96.......-5.8% 22..Valley.....5/15/95....20.13..... -10.6%.....47......5......25.96........0.6% 23..Peak......8/1/95......25.81......28.3%..... 78..... 5......21.93 ......-5.7% 24..Valley....9/8/95.......23.25.....-9.9%....... 38....10.....29.40 .......-12.1% 25..Peak.....12/14/95....33.44.....43.8%.......97......5.....28.77.........-4.9% 26..Valley.....1/19/96.....30.25.....-9.5%.......36....14..... 37.10.........4.9% 27..Peak.......2/13/96.....35.38....16.9%.......25.....4...... 30.50 ........-0.8% 28..Valley.....3/14/96..... 30.75....-13.1%......30.....11.....37.65.........4.0% 29..Peak.......4/3/96 ......36.19....17.7%.......20..... 2......31.23 .......-0.7% 30..Valley......5/8/96......31.44....-13.1%......35......3......38.41........-0.7% 31..Peak.......6/17/96.....38.69....23.1%.......40......3......33.47........2.0% 32..Valley......7/16/96.....32.81....-15.2%.....29......2.......39.92........-7.7% 33..Peak.....10/21/96......43.25...31.8%.......97..... 5.......37.56....... -4.9% 34..Valley....10/28/96.....39.50....-8.7%........7.......5.......47.28 ....... 3.6% 35..Peak.....11/26/96 .....45.63...15.5%......29.......4.......39.69 .......-0.1% 36..Valley....12/6/96 .......39.75...-12.9%.....10.......5.......47.56........-4.6% 37..Peak.......2/18/97......49.88...25.5%......74...... 5.......43.50.........4.8% 38..Valley..... 4/03/97......41.50...-16.8%.....44.....15.......49.48........30.9% 39..Peak.......7/07/97.......64.75.. 56.0%......95 ....18.....55.13 .........-7.4% 40...Valley....8/18/97........51.06...-21.1%.....42 ...11.....66.88.........10.1% 41...Peak....10/24/97.......73.63 ...44.2%......67.....3 ....62.00...........4.8% 42...Valley...10/27/97.......65.00 ...-11.7% .....4.....2.....85.50.........-12.1% 43...Peak....10/30/97.......74.88.....15.2% .....2..... 3.....66.00.........+0.5% 44...Valley...11/13/97.......66.31....-11.3%....14.... 3.....83.00.........-3.6% 45...Peak....12/04/97.......80.00.....20.6%....21.....2......69.13.......+0.6% 46...Valley...12/19/97.......69.56....-13.0%....15.....1......87.13........+9.0% 47...Peak......1/05/98.......79.94.....14.9% ....17....1......69.38 ....... -2.4% 48...Valley... 1/12/98...... 71.06.....-11.1% .... 7....3 .....87.00........ -4.9% 49...Peak..... 2/27/98...... 91.44.......28.7% ...46 ...1 ....79.87 ....... -5.1% 50...Valley....3/06/98.......84.13.........-8.0% .... 7 ...3....103.71.......+0.0% 51....Peak.....4/06/98 ....103.75........23.3%...31...13.....91.86 ........-3.6% 52...Valley.... 4/16/98......95.31........ -8.1%....10 ....1...116.50 ........-4.3% 53...Peak......4/21/98.....121.75.........27.7%.....5 ....8...109.12..........4.5% 54...Valley....5/17/98 .....104.75........-14.0% ...26 ..2....124.00.......+8.6% 55....Peak ....5/20/98 .....114.19.........9.0%......3 ...4 ....101.10.......+0.8% 56 ...Valley.. 6/01/98......100.38........-12.1%....12...5 ....119.75.......+4.2% 57....Peak.... 6/18/98 ....114.94..........14.5%....17...1 ...102.00........-3.4% 58....Valley.. 7/06/98 .....105.63......... -8.1% ...18 ..4.....126.59.......+5.0% 59....Peak ...7/14/98......120.56..........14.1% .....8 ..4....107.00........+9.2% 60... Valley... 8/11/98......98.00.........-18.7%.....28...1.....117.19.......+7.6% 61....Peak...8/19/98.......108.94..........10.6% .....8 ..1.......97.06........+5.5% 62....Valley.. 9/01/98 ..... 92.00......... -15.5% ...13 ..6....109.79.......+7.6% 63....Peak ...9/03/98......102.06..........10.9% ......2....5.....90.32........-3.4% 64... Valley.. 9/04/98......93.50...........-8.4%........1... 5...110.79.......+6.7% 65....Peak.....9/15/98.....103.88........+11.1%.....11...0.... 92.25.......-2.9% 66....Valley....9/21/98......95.00.........-8.5%.........6...0....110.00.....+0.7% 67....Peak.....9/28/98.....109.19........+14.9%...... 7...2......96.93.....+12.7% 68....Valley...10/08/98......86.00........-21.3%.....10...5......101.40.....+4.6% 69....Peak.....10/12/98.... 96.94........+12.7%.......4...0.... 85.30......-3.6% 70....Valley...10/14/98......88.50.........-8.7%........2...2....103.36.......-19.8% 71....Peak....12/31/98 ... 128.94......+45.7%.......78...1.....114.00.......+4.1% 72....Valley...1/12/99......109.56........-15.0%.....12...4.....127.49........-5.3% 73....Peak....2/02/99 ... 134.63.......+22.9%......21...5.....118.66.......-5.1% 74....Valley...2/09/99......125.00........-7.1%......7.....0....139.84........+2.4% 75....Peak....3/05/99 ... 136.56.........+9.2%......24....0 ........Pending ______________________________________________ Average..Peak (1999) N=2..............+16.1%.....23.............3 Average..Peak (1998) N=13............+18.3%.....18 ............3 Average..Peak (1997) N= 5.............+32.3%.....52.............7 Average..Peak (90-99) N=38...........+27.8%.....63 ............4 Average..Valley (1999) N= 2 ......... -11.1%......10 .............2 Average..Valley (1998) N=12 ......... -12.1%.....12 .............3 Average.. Valley (1997) N= 5...........-14.2%.....10 .............2 Average..Valley (90-99) N=37 .........-14.2%.....29 .............6 The Peabody 1999 Archives Comprehensive Peabody Reports 2/28/99 Predicted March range of 125 to 142 1/31/99 Predicted February PFE range 119 to 135 +http://www3.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/reply-75801481/10/99 1/10/99 Guaranteed PFE split and noted PFE buying opportunity www3.techstocks.com The Peabody Mini-Reports 2/23/99 2/14/99 2/09/99 www3.techstocks.com 2/02/99 www3.techstocks.com 1/28/99 www3.techstocks.com 1/27/99 www3.techstocks.com 1/26/99 www3.techstocks.com 1/24/99 www3.techstocks.com

To: Barron Von Hymen who wrote (7154)	3/8/1999 12:02:00 AM
From: Bull-like	Respond to of 9523

Agreed, Barron- Usually, the authors of these quick n' dirty studies knew that their results will be visited more by the press than the scientists. Normally, these results are short-lived anyway. Just ignore them. Da bull

To: Barron Von Hymen who wrote (7154)	3/8/1999 12:58:00 PM
From: Anthony Wong	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9523

Japan Insurance Won't Cover Viagra, Tokyo Shimbun Says(Update1) Bloomberg News March 7, 1999, 12:54 a.m. ET Japan Insurance Won't Cover Viagra, Tokyo Shimbun Says(Update1) (Adding background on Viagra, birth-control pill.) Tokyo, March 7 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's Ministry of Health and Welfare said prescriptions of Pfizer Inc.'s impotence drug Viagra will not be covered by national health insurance, a setback that could hurt sales, the Tokyo Shimbun reported. The ministry also indicated that the birth control pill, expected to be given final approval by the government later this year, will not be covered by the insurance system either. Viagra is intended more to improve one's quality of life rather than treat a specific illness, the newspaper cited the ministry as saying, indicating it views impotence as a natural consequence of getting older. The article did not specify how the ministry would view younger individuals suffering from the same problem. Likewise, birth control pills are not generally intended as a treatment for illness, the ministry said, according to the report. Efforts to contact ministry officials for comment were unsuccessful. The ministry is obliged to tell Pfizer by March 25 -- 60 days after its approval -- whether Viagra will be covered by national health insurance. Forcing potential users to pay for the drug themselves may crimp sales. Pfizer Pharmaceuticals Inc., Pfizer's Japanese subsidiary, has not released a sales projection for Viagra, but is projecting an 86 percent jump in overall revenue to 268 billion yen ($2.2 billion) by November 2002, said unit President Leslie Patterson. The company will begin selling Viagra in Japan this month. Viagra became the world's fastest-growing prescription drug after its introduction last year in the U.S., Europe and elsewhere. The drug generated sales of $788 million between its debut the first week of April and Dec. 31. New York-based Pfizer has high hopes for Viagra in Japan, with its growing elderly population. Japan accounts for 20 percent of the world's annual drug sales, and is the 54th nation to approve Viagra. Asia is the Pfizer group's third-biggest revenue source, generating 13 percent of sales, after the U.S. and Europe. Bitterness Over Pill The swift approval of Viagra -- the government debated just six months -- is in stark contrast to the ministry's handling of the birth control pill, setting off a debate in Japan about the fairness of its male-oriented society. After more than nine years of pondering the advantages and drawbacks of oral contraceptives, the Health Ministry said last week it aims to approve the Pill by June and make it available later in the year. Nine companies, including Daiichi Pharmaceutical Corp., Yamanouchi Pharmaceutical Co., Meiji Seika Ltd. and Teikoku Hormone Manufacturing Co., have applied to sell the Pill in Japan. Before final approval is granted on June 2, the ministry will hold more debate on what information needs to be given to patients, including a warning that the Pill isn't 100 percent effective and that unprotected sex could expose users to sexually transmitted diseases, said Toshiki Hirai, an official at the ministry's Pharmaceutical and Medical Safety Bureau. Yet the Pill is unlikely to be covered by national health insurance, he said. --Minoru Matsutani in the Tokyo newsroom with reporting by Ryoko