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To: Wildstar who wrote (39141)	3/7/1999 11:27:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Excellent Washington Post article ... The Washington Post article was excellent. Unlike the "Economist'' article; the author supported his thoughts with historically supported facts, statistics on the Gulf States Social & Political climate & Economies, Geo-Political conclusions based upon the relationships of the Petro-Dollar Economies, Royal Families, Nationalism, Religious Fundamentalism, Terrorism and the risks presented to the American and the Global Economy. *******************************************************************************<< In 1973, when the Arab oil embargo crippled the U.S. economy, the United States was importing 36 percent of its oil. Today, it imports 56 percent. Unless Western oil companies and their customers exercise more vigilance, they could be in for another expensive lesson. >> ...now if there was ever a more important ''truism'' than if we fail to learn from history - we are destined to repeat it; I'd like to hear it... We saw what happened once before with a Domestic Oil Crisis. Greenspan & Co. will make sure this ''unmanageable Inflation Monster'' never gets out of the bottle again. They will not let Crude prices remain low - they can NOT afford to let market conditions get out of control and they know they are dangerously teetering on the edge of a collapse in Oil prices and all of what that would bring. Greenspan just ''warned'' that low Oil prices would not continue. The message was clear - he will not let them continue - he can not afford to. ***************************************************************************** << ...most Middle Eastern countries have remained "petrodollar" economies, deriving most of their foreign exchange earnings from oil exports. ... Iranian ministries have received less than half of their proposed budgets this year. The Yemeni government, which lost half its income, has cut 55 percent from its budget since 1998 and raised taxes significantly despite fierce opposition in parliament. The Saudi government, which lost one-third of its revenues last year and is now $13 billion in the red, has adopted an austerity budget for 1999 that includes cutting state spending by almost 16 percent. >> << Riots erupted in several cities in Yemen after the government discontinued subsidies on bread and fuel. Economic desperation has also led native tribesmen to dramatically step up their long-simmering terrorist campaign against foreign oil companies, >> << In 1998 alone, there were 18 attacks by Yemeni tribesmen against the pipeline that carries nearly half of Yemen's oil output ..>> << ... in Bahrain, economic stagnation has reinvigorated popular resentment against the ruling emir, who dissolved the parliament in 1975 and has been governing by decree ever since. Arson attacks on fuel tanks, foreign-owned stores ...>> << ...Today, joblessness in the region ranges from 15 to 40 percent. Most inhabitants of the Gulf states are under age 25; in Saudi Arabia, a startling 75 percent of the population is under 30. And because urban and middle-class inhabitants have come to expect an easy life subsidized by oil revenues, few have developed the skills to replace the foreign workers these desert kingdoms can no longer afford. >> ... This should and did get Mr. Greenspans attention. This should also trigger the defcom 4 status of our anti-terrorism Units and a build up in our Military presence in the Middle East; whooops - I guess that has allready happened under the Iraq ''Inspection'' program... and what are the Iraqi's accusing us of now ? Preparing for a land presence, or attack... throw King Husseins death into the Political mix as well...The level of political instability of the Middle East in 6-12 months may be at a historic high. How many anti-American attacks have we had of late, terrorists attacks on our foreign Embassies etc ? This will not be a slow resolution - there will not be a period of 2-3-4 years of $10-12 Oil - The World can not afford the Geo-Political and Economic risk. Imho; we will shortly see a series of events unfold that will quite dramatically change the forward looking expectations for Oil prices... ******************************************************************************* What will OPEC do ? Imho; any prediction is nothing more than a coin flip. I would instead base my investments/trades upon the effects of the expected market reactions to the ''range'' of OPEC's potential actions. I believe at the least, they will pledge total adherance to current cuts. At the best, small additional cuts by both OPEC and non-Opec countries as well. I would not expect OPEC to cut without a pledge of the same from key non-Opec countries. Irregardless of an expected negative market reaction to anything less than new cuts; the trend in supply is down and the not as yet seen effect of the Global decimation in production from the historic level of cuts in Cap Ex budgets, will keep the trend in supply down and the price of crude slowly trending upward longterm - irregardless of any temporary OPEC market reactions aside... If OPEC does not announce new cuts - the ''trading'' play is cash & short ! Yes; short ! Back down to support levels of OSX 45ish and perhaps pressure from trading to new lows of OSX 40ish imho. Why shouldn't we make money in both directions ? However anyone who owns near the recent selloff bottoms and that is a longterm buy & hold investor has nothing to worry about - sit tight. They are in at excellent valuations. The OSX will then finally recover in a ''real'' leg upward after support is found near OSX 40-45 - as the ''Sentiment'' expectation driver of new OPEC cuts will be out of the way. The actual drop in Global Production and supply numbers will give these stocks and Crude Prices a ''real'' fundamental bottom on which to finally move forward on a permanent basis. The market will finally price the reality of reduced supply/production into Oil Prices. The need for new OPEC cuts is in reality - ''emotional-sentiment'' driven and not ''mathematical-price'' driven imho. We will get a negative ''emotional'' market reaction if OPEC does not announce new cuts - but shortly thereafter reality will return and it will be the end of this up & down rolling range. The ''real'' recovery will then take place. If OPEC does announce new cuts - here comes OSX 72ish ! I'm in here @ 50% cash levels and tight - tight stops... Unfortunately anyone who was not ''in'' at the bottoms of these recent selloffs - has a real tough call here... If they buy here and OPEC doesn't cut - then they get whipsawed. If they aren't in here and OPEC does cut - they missed a 50% + move from OSX to the probable post-new cut level of OSX 60-72+ ! Do they then buy there ? What if there is a normal retracement ? - whipsawed again ? I don't see how anyone plays the "MO-Mo'' game ? Where do they buy ? We could see a 50% + sector move and STILL - NOT have the ''price of Oil --Stupid'' fundamentals that they are waiting for ! If they wait for $15 Oil Prices - will we be at OSX 85ish ? - do they then miss a DOUBLE !? ...nothing like being a bottom fisher - many more options...the least of which is being able to trade in ''front'' of market reactions and not in reaction to market actions. The only ''play'' here was to buy headlong into this selloff as we had a market anomaly of declining supply & rising Crude Oil pricesinto the face of an OSX selloff. The ''ONLY'' thing to due was to BUY ! We had a quadruple bottom behind us, tax loss selling was behind us, all of the then unanswered questions about the FED, LTC were behind us. How couldn't you BUY - ''THIS" selloff when compared to all others ? Rising Oil Prices - Declining supply and falling stock prices - sounded like a no-brainer to me - and it was... Now the prudent thing is to have taken ''some'' profits (off of Maria B's CNBC pump - I may add <VBG> ), but to still be at least partially in here; as to be able to catch the OPEC spike if good news is forthcoming. I think the shorts will pound us this coming week - could see a 5-10% retracement. They want to keep the lid on this very, very badly. Huge money is on the sidelines here if OPEC announces new cuts; - huge inflow of money ! If we do see a run this week; then daytrading the Mo-Mo move upward without getting greedy, may be a good move for once and the last chance for ''traders'' to get in. Following the tape up is not a bad move imho - with super-tight stops; but I wouldn't be a ''new'' buyer here on moderate dips as getting caught in an OPEC no-new cuts, selloff is 50/50 imho. The week preceeding OPEC's meeting will be the interesting one imho - I may take a week off to be in on that one... That will be interesting... I do not think we will see a run up unless the Street see's near ''sure'' signs of new cuts being anounced. This will be a ''Battle Royale'' between the Bears & Bulls... Another big opportunity to take profits will be the initial run up following the announcement of new OPEC cuts if they happen. Again; I will hope to catch the hysteria peak and take additional profits, only to then buy a retracement as the market return to reality sets in and the Shorts will hit hard and a return of gloom & doom spin doctoring is inevitable... The next 3 weeks will offer 2 years worth of profits to anyone who nails this imho. My play is to have taken some profits on this recent move. To either short down on no new OPEC cuts and negative reactions to OPEC's meeting; or to take my additonal profits on the inevitable euphoric spike on good news from OPEC and then to finally re-buy the inevitable emotional let down dip... Also; having taken some profits and being in some cash here; gives one the ability to buy a post OPEC meeting selloff if no new cuts and negative market reactions occur. Being ''in'' here gives one all the options - not being ''in'' here is virtually impossible to profit from; and is sheer gambling - being soley at the mercy of the Street. PS - one has to call those bottoms to be in at those bottoms...

To: Wildstar who wrote (39141)	3/7/1999 1:29:00 PM
From: SargeK	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

"A LOOK AT . . . Where Cheap Gas Takes Us More Smog Ahead If We Don't Stop Guzzling By James J. MacKenzie Sunday, March 7, 1999; Page B03 Did you know that every 15 gallons of gas your car burns releases about 300 pounds of carbon dioxide into the air." As the guy who likes to sit at the back of the class whose hand is usually up, my question with regard to the above "leading" statement in the article is "What chemical or atomic process produces 300 pounds of carbon dioxide out of approximately 105 pounds (7lbs * 15 gallons) of gasoline which is 85% carbon?" K