Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Boca_PETE who wrote (3651)	3/7/1999 10:54:00 AM
From: Lars	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

Pete, >>> *> Last week's rally to marginal new highs had unimpressive volume and breadth. The DOW is only 4% higher that the July 1998 pre-correction high of last summer (To put things in perspective). >>> Excellent point. This very important. >>> Imho, these are hardly 'over positive" observations. To the contrary, I'm interpreting them as a warning not to trust this rally. >>> As I have already said, I am really looking forward to watching Mr. Market over the next few weeks; especially, if he becomes so excited as to push us over 10,000 this early in the year. >>> Brinker did clarify that "getting asset allocation levels down to sleep levels" does not mean taking defensive measures to become less than 100% invested in the market for the equity portion of one's asset allocation because his Timing Model shows ZERO CHANCE of a Bear Market "AT THIS TIME". >>> This is an important statement. IMHO, one must remember Bob is speaking to the average listener/investor. Bob would never want that person to start trying to move in and out of the market. I think many of us here are more serious followers of Bob, utilize more than a casual approach to adjust our portfolios, understand how to do it in a manner that avoids taxes, etc; thus I really think this statement you quoted is of extreme importance, for me anyway. Da Brink is a genius. No doubt about it. One thing I learned, in greater detail than ever, after our serious reflection last year is to listen to Bob and analyze the information for my own decision. His opinion is the best. My major point here: Take responsibility for your portfolio strategy AND when you here our Starship Commander telling people to seriously watch asset allocation levels....you better listen. Looking back at last year's correction I have learned to watch a few important indicators and understand that Bob is NOT saying to sell but be cautious when he addresses asset allocation. For me this means, adjusting further to cash in IRAs, 401k, etc. I don't advise others to do this but I am offering my perspective. The main reason I share this is my portfolio has been 90+ % equities at times during this "most incredible bull market in history". I think it is prudent to move to a 40/60 position at these levels for me personally. I don't care about losing out on another 2% or so move higher. I just don't want to lose money by being greedy. Mr. Market has been very good to me. Bob Brinker has been phenomenally good to me on my journey towards serious critical mass.

To: Boca_PETE who wrote (3651)	3/7/1999 1:40:00 PM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

Thanks for the summary of Bob's cautionary comments from yesterday. I just finished listening to my tapes of last weekend, including his comments on distribution, which are important enough that they bear repeating. A caller asked if the market's continuing to bounce around in this range for the next three months would "wash out" the 1120 buy target, and Bob said that yes, it would, for the following reasons (paraphrasing): If the market continues to bounce around and churn around in a narrow range in the vicinity of the previous highs, and if that goes on for a period of three months, that would concern me DEEPLY, because it would open the door to the potential for a more severe intermediate decline. It would be similar to what we had last year, when we had distribution during April, May, June, and July that was so massive that it created market internals that gave us the only true intermediate correction that we have had in the decade of the 1990's. This week's rally certainly seems to raise the caution flag even further. For those who missed it, here is a good description of the meaning of distribution from earlier in the thread: Message 8121011 Message 8127026

To: Boca_PETE who wrote (3651)	3/7/1999 3:25:00 PM
From: Investor2	Respond to of 15132

Re: "The 5% mild correction we've had in the DOW and S&P500 is inadequate to be the basis of a significant rise in the market from this point, ... I'm interpreting them as a warning not to trust this rally." That is similar to what I've been hearing and is partially why I am currently a little under-weighted in equities, waiting for that buying opportunity. Best wishes, I2