Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Monty Lenard who wrote (38024)	3/7/1999 12:48:00 PM
From: Robert Graham	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

The original post of mine started as an attempt to highlight that many traders and technicians misjudge the market and find themselves on the wrong side of a trade so often, particularly when there is no trend in place. This misguided view, and that is what I think it is much of the time, is taken at times by even some of the more experienced technicians and traders when there was strong evidence contrary to their prediction or market bias. Part of this problem I think has to do with perspective. Biases effect perspective including that which comes out as predictions. One other observation is that in order to respond to what happened Thursday and Friday one must be somewhat of a very short term trader which is exactly what you say you aren't. I am a short term trader. I make trades that last anywhere from a few days to at most a couple weeks. Normally my trade lasts about one week. Does this qualify? I have posted about this many times in the past. Second, all trends start with short term moves by the market. They key is to understand which short term moves are relevant which need to be monitored closely. You must already know this. There is nothing wrong with EXPECTATIONS/PREDICTIONS. IMHO they are a MUST as only by having those can one really MEASURE when they are proven wrong or right. Predicions demonstrate bias that a trader does actually trade on. Predictions do not acknowledge the probabilistic nature of trading that is much more a part of trading than most appear to recognize. I use my market expectations more as a gauge to the market and the individual stocks that I trade. If the market or stock does not perform to this gauge, then I can just as easily alter the way I am executing my trade and also my future positions that I do take. It is this difference that many do not seem to recognize. It is this difference that allows me at times to see what others are simply not able to see. Not that I am any expert, but I am just making some observations here. From the statement you are making above, you seem to see this in terms of being "right" or "wrong". There is not "right" or "wrong" because this implies opinions and a bias that you trade on. There is just what the market does. And I am here to make money, which is different than being validated by the market. Heck, what looks like on the chart to be a losing trade can still be made to break even or score a profit to a good trader. Execution of the trade is what makes the difference in managing the risk in the market and establish an exit that determines the profit or loss of a trade. Execution has more to do with what the market does than your original opinion that placed you in the trade in the first place. Some good traders even see the entry at the bottom of their list of importance. So also goes their evaluation of their opinion about the markets. "I can operate this way because I am not a day trader and do not trade for a living." Then I must assume you are strickly a LONG TERM investor (5 year + time horizon). If that is the case, why would you worry about confirmations of specific market moves? Now you have lost me here. There is a difference between a day trader and and other short term traders. Also there is a difference between one who trades for a living and needs to take a more aggressive posture in the market compared to one who does not trade for a living and can be selective and who may choose not to participate at all. The risk tolerance is what is different here among other things. Surely you must understand all of this. How do you find the comment I made that you referred to above tell you that I am an investor of 5 or more years? For that matter, people who are essentially day traders I think would find anything over one week irrelevant to their trading. One week would be considered the long term. Correct? Bob Graham