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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Claud B who wrote (7701)	3/7/1999 1:18:00 PM
From: Terry Whitman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Great chart comparison. pw1.netcom.com Dow has broken to a marginal new high very similar to last July. It could be much worse this time around though, due to rising rates. If you draw interest rate trend lines back for several months from July 98, it is clear that we were in a falling rate trend. It is now clear that the trend in interest rates is rising. I posted a few weeks ago that barring improvements in fundamentals, this market would only get riskier with a move up. This appears to be happening big time. Easy credit has been fueling the market, and the economy. The easy credit appears to be ending- A major show stopper for bull markets. I'll readily admit that I was surprised by the markets melt-up on thursday & friday. I expected a few days of rally- but not of that magnitude. Congrats to all who read it and profited. It just goes to show you that the market is risky in both directions. I'm glad I didn't initiate any short positions yet. <g> Still holding MCD. Using past market tops as a guide- Only the very best quality stocks in clear uptrends will continue going up. Stocks like MCD, WMT, etc. Also probably a few speculative ones. Short term- it looks like the 9 month cycle will top out again at the 6 month point (April 8). Are these guys following a script or what? <g> Regards, TW