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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (19842)	3/13/1999 11:50:00 AM
From: Ed Weider	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 42787

I agree with Carpino's forecast. But would rather up the date a bit. Carpino is of course forecasting a decline in April. I see it happening mid March rather. The action Friday 13/03/99 seems to be indicating the support for this rally is drying up, (refering to vol. analysis of 60min. charts of the major indices). Looking at how intermarkets correlate, the 30yr T-bonds back in Oct changed trend. Usually the bond market tops out before stocks, anywhere from 3-6 months. This placed me on the watch from Jan-April. This rally we've had seems to be the last kick at the can before a retracement to DOW 8750. I'm expecting the market will resume it's course after this. Another indicator to watch for business cycle trends is the ConsumerLoans, with a positive slope recently I expect the market will take off after this pull back. FedRes model indicates the SP500 as 39% overvalued. Overvaluation is ok. Extreme overvaluation is not. I expect it to pull back to 25-29% at the trough. P.S. I've been a student of the markets for the past 11 years. In May I'm closing up my business and throwing myself in as a full time DayTrader... Wish me.... well you know...Luck.