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To: The Ox who wrote (39200)	3/8/1999 2:05:00 AM
From: Dwight E. Karlsen	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Michael, is there a consensus on the street as to "expectations"? >"I also think that if oil continues to rise into the OPEC meeting, that a cut in line with expectations won't cause a huge spike up."< From this thread, just casual observation looks like the median expectation is for a cut announcement of 1.25m bpd for the Mar. 23rd ministerial meeting of OPEC. However if we factor in the "no cut" estimates, we're probably much lower, towards 250,000 bpd, which isn't much. Mike from L.A., are you going to do a mean and median average guesstimate from the responses?

To: The Ox who wrote (39200)	3/8/1999 3:27:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (7) \| Respond to of 95453

It is easy to agree to cuts - but not so easy to determine who cuts ! I think one has to be taking some profits here if you bought the bottom. I don't know about the rest of you; but I ''aint'' giving up ANY 20-30% moves again ! I'll take the middle 1/2- 2/3rd's and NOT get greedy. This is the only way that I have been able to be successfull. -- Buying headlong into the selloffs - especially in light of our now 4-peat impervious bottom and taking profits on the invevitable rolling trading ranges of late. I am in 50% cash here, but the 50% of my investments are virtually 90% into the Oilpatch - so my degree of Bullishness is pretty strong . I just see this as an opportunity to trade ahead of the Street for once if one is - ''in'' at this bottom. Only VTS is in the ''red'' for me currently - RIG close to break even... I am NOT going to fail to take some very heady profits here. We have come too far - too fast to let an OPEC failure to take new cuts - cost us everything imho. New cuts are completely priced in here imho. If OPEC does not announce new additional cuts - we sell off hard and fast. That is why I will spin to cash and short this down. It will be a virtual free money short play. I would only short this brief window of opportunity. I am as bullish as ever on the yet under-factored fundamentals of reduced production and the end effect that will have on supply and crude prices. I will short the fall and also look to only get 1/2 of the move down... and will re-BUY this bottom as well. Make no mistake here - this is an OPEC RALLY ! They do not really believe the fundamentals have changed - so trade accordingly. While I was pounding the table pointing to the fact that we now were trending toward supply levels that had never historically supported crude prices this low; I was chastised left and right. I believed the numbers - I knew the street would follow. I bought headlong into this selloff based on that fact - NOT what OPEC would, or would not do. I will not ''bet'' on OPEC - as it is no more than a 50/50 coin flip imho. But, by buying into this bottom and taking profits including more today - I am in a position to trade ahead of the Street. I am positioned and prepared to profit regardless of what OPEC does , or does not do. If they do cut - I add buy laggards (caught OMNI @ 3 11/16ths & MLRC @ 6 13/16 today) and ride the wave and profit with a 50% allocation of my total funds in the Oilpatch. I will also keep taking proifits as we will also inevitably retrace a bit... If they do not cut - I have all ready profited by taking profits all the way up. I also have a cost basis on my holdings much lower than present levels - where I can go to all cash profitably and then short the inevitable move down if OPEC does not cut. Imho - the Street owes me money both on the ride up and the ride down and make no mistake about it - if OPEC does not announce new cuts - we are coming down HARD & FAST ! Now Michael H; if that is changing in the wind - sorry; but you just don't get it imho... We have been preaching - ''trade the range'' ! We have now had 4 rolling ranges with an impervious bottom of OSX 45. No one could have diagramed , or planned a better rolling range than what the OSX has had of late. We played the tax loss selloff and took profits early in Jan. I will NOT miss any more 20-30%+ moves here again. Michael & the Mo-Mo gang can have the final 25% of the moves here - I just want the first 75% ! ...<VBG>. Don't get greedy folks; OPEC has burned more than one Oilpatch rally - don't be afraid to take profits here ! Agreeing to make new cuts is easy - but deciding how those cuts will be shared is quite another imho... this is far from a done deal - and unfortunately a ''done deal'' is currently priced into these prices if they keep moving... I would hate to be a new MO-Mo buyer here and honestly I have no mercy, or pity for their plight - I want their money on the way up - which I have been taking here - and then will take it on the way down once again; if OPEC does not cut and they get whipsawed... A "Dawgitude'' - "Plan your trades and trade your plan.''